498
FXUS63 KLBF 051124
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
624 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WETTING RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW.
- LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, INTENSIFYING A SURFACE
LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO STREAM PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PLAINS, PROVIDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION. AS THE LOW REMAINS OVER EASTERN COLORADO, NEAR STEADY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA, WITH SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE SANDHILLS. GIVEN THE
DURATION OF THE EVENT, POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY,
EXPECTING A WETTING RAINFALL FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA, WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR AMOUNTS GREATER THAN ONE HALF
INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN OSHKOSH TO HAYES CENTER LINE.
TUESDAY NIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA, EXPECTING TO SEE SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS. ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE, MAY SEE A FULL SWITCHOVER TO SNOW FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES,
EXPECTING VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS, WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AND ONLY LASTING A
FEW HOURS AT MOST. AS TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE 50S, ANY SNOW THAT MANAGED TO REACH THE GROUND
SHOULD RAPIDLY MELT.
AS FOR WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA, EJECTING THE SURFACE LOW FROM
EASTERN COLORADO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS,
WITH SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK OUT
OF THE REGION, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WEST
WINDS, AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY ALLOW
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING, WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON FORECAST TRENDS TO SEE IF ANOTHER FREEZE PRODUCT IS
NEEDED. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY WITH A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT. AT THIS TIME,
WILL FOREGO ANY FREEZE PRODUCTS, BUT SOMETHING WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE PLANTS AND VEGETATION.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US WILL KEEP SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS RIGHT NOW, BUT COULD SEE A STRONGER STORM OR
TWO ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SOME MODEST INSTABILITY THURSDAY EVENING, MAINLY WEST OF US-83. IF
SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SEE THEM IN THIS VICINITY AS THEY
DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS INSTABILITY QUICKLY WANES AFTER SUNSET.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES ON THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER, SOMEWHAT STRONGER, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME EXTENDED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SUNDAY. CURRENTLY THE SEVERE RISK IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. AFTER
SEVERAL DAYS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, THIS HIGH WILL USHER IN
SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN STEADY
IN THE 40S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS MAINLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY
DUE TO FALLING RAIN AS WELL AS LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHTNING OR BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL. A DRY OR MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA (KVTN), BUT OVERCAST SKIES WITH CEILINGS AS LOW AS
8000 FEET SHOULD STILL BE EXPECTED.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...KULIK
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