127
FXUS63 KLBF 061136
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
636 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOWERS FAVORING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE ACTIVITY
EXITS TOWARDS MIDDAY. NO WINTRY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
- A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM AT BEST AT SEEING
WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE EVENING,
MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE, WITH NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED.
- LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO WARMER, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING...HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A SOUTHWARD DIVING TROUGH TRACKS ALONG
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODEST HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS WILL SETTLE EAST WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW
PROMOTING MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE LARGELY FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
WITH CLOUD COVER KEEPING THINGS FAIRLY MILD. WINDS WERE LARGELY OUT
OF THE NORTH AT LESS THAN 10 MPH AND SHOULD REMAIN AT THESE LIGHT
SPEEDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEDNESDAY...A WEAK CONVERGING BOUNDARY IN VICINITY OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS WITH CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTING THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS TOWARDS THE PLATTE VALLEY FOR THE AREA TO WATCH. TUESDAY
EVENING RAOB DATA FROM NORTH PLATTE SHOWS A SATURATED PROFILE WITH
LOW AND MID LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) BOTH EXCEEDING 80% THOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES REMAIN NEAR MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE
CALENDAR DAY. THIS SUGGESTS SHOWERY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING MEASURABLE MOISTURE. IN FACT, RECENT
HRRR RUNS HAVE SHOWN MORE IMPRESSIVE QPF VALUES WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE
OF 0.15"+ IN ONLY 2-3 HOURS TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND THIS STYMIES ANY INSTABILITY THREAT AND
THUS LIMITS THE THREAT FOR THUNDER. ON TOP OF THAT, WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND AN ABUNDANCE OF ICE NUCLEI, CAN'T RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION FALLING WITH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN. THOUGH
THIS WILL LARGELY FAVOR WEST OF HIGHWAY 61, IT WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW REACH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. IN EITHER
EVENT, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD PERSIST
SOUTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE BULK OF THE MORNING HOURS. BY NOW,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE WARMED ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A CHANGEOVER BACK
TO ALL RAIN. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
BENEATH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES, EXPECTING A NEAR PERSISTENCE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD HELP SUPPORT A
RETURN TO LOWER 50S FOR MANY AND UPPER 50S FOR SOME. WINDS
AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY STRONG, SO THE WEAKER MIXING FROM
DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD BOLSTER TEMPERATURES TOO SIGNIFICANTLY.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES LEANED ON MAV/NAM/HRRR OUTPUT.
THOUGH RH MAY FALL INTO THE 20-25% RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON, WINDS
OF LESS THAN 20 MPH WILL PRECLUDE GREATER FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND THE INHERITED FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
HIGHWAY 92 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TROUGH AXIS
WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING WITH RAPID HEIGHT RISES
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE. SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL PROLONG WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONCERNS FOR
THE POTENTIAL FREEZE: 1) RECENT RAINS WILL BOOST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING TOO MUCH. 2) A MODEST LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL PREVENT WINDS FROM GOING
COMPLETELY CALM. 3) THIS LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION (WAA) WITH H85 READINGS IN THE 5-8C RANGE. RECENT HREF RUN
SHOWS LOW PROBABILITIES, GENERALLY LESS THAN 40%, FOR TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW 32F ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THE NBM APPEARS TO BE THE
LARGEST ADVOCATE FOR REACHING THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BUT A CLOSER LOOK SHOWS THIS IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY BIAS-
CORRECTION MEMBERS WITH A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT GAP, A 12F DIFFERENCE
FROM THE 18Z GUIDANCE, IN MEDIAN VALUES OF BIAS CORRECTED AND NON-
BIAS CORRECTED MEMBERS. BECAUSE OF THIS, CONFIDENCE IN MEETING
FREEZE CRITERIA IS LOW. THAT SAID, WILL DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO
MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINE GIVEN 24+ HOURS OUT AND THE
HOPE THAT NWP OUTPUT CAN HONE IN ON ONE PARTICULAR OUTCOME. FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST, MORE MILD TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND SO SEE NO
REASON TO CONSIDER ADJUSTMENTS/EXPANSIONS TO OTHER AREAS.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SETTLE IN AS UPPER-
RIDGING ARRIVES ALONG THE WEST COAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES APPEAR
LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEHIND A
PASSING SURFACE TROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO WORK IN AND PROMOTE
AFTERNOON RH MINIMUMS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THOUGH
WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER, GUSTS WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED TO
AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH AND WILL PRECLUDE GREATER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AT THIS TIME. LATER IN THE DAY, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LIFT IN TANDEM WITH THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 90-100 KNOT H25 JET WILL SUPPORT A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND
LEAD TO INCREASING POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY BUT
PERHAPS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.
MUCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO AROUND 600 J/KG AND WITH
FAIRLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. SHEAR
MAY INCREASE IN LATE EVENING BUT THIS OCCURS AS INSTABILITY WANES
AND SUPPORTS THE CONTINUED THOUGHT OF NO SEVERE WEATHER. WETTING
RAINS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE INCOMING SHOWERS AND GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE HREF PROBABILITIES ONLY PEAK AROUND 20% OF
EXCEEDING 0.01"/HOUR RATES, INDIVIDUAL CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
(CAMS), NOTABLY THE NAM/NAM NEST/ARW/NSSL, PAINT SPOTTY QPF
EXCEEDING 0.15" OVER THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING
WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE INFLUX OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
KEEP LOWS ON THE MILDER SIDE WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S HEADING INTO FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS RETURNS FOR FRIDAY, HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINING NOT ONLY SOME WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THE REGION, BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS. THE SEVERE RISK REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BUT AT THIS TIME, CURRENTLY ONLY EXPECTED SOME STRONGER
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION. OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT, THE DRY PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH SATURDAY. AS
THE RIDGING RETURNS, SOME COOLER AIR WILL PUSH IN ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE HIGH DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 20 TO 26 C RANGE OUT OF
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING HIGHS TO RISE BACK INTO
THE 80S THROUGH EARLY WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL RISE BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARMER AIR SETTLES INTO THE
REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL QUICKLY COME TO
AN END OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OVERCAST SKIES WITH CEILINGS NEAR
5000 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. SKIES WILL IMPROVE OVER
THE AFTERNOON RISING BACK INTO VFR. ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNDER 12 KNOTS, BUT WILL SHIFT FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING TO 8 AM
CDT /7 AM MDT/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ022-035>037-056>059-069>071.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...KULIK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page