334
FXUS63 KLBF 071750
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1250 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE
EACH DAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY,
FAVORING AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED, A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.
- LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO WARMER, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THESE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO MORE WESTERLY, STRENGTHENING AS
THEY DO. AS THE LLJ INCREASES, DOWNSLOPING FLOW COINCIDENT WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION (WAA) WILL HELP STALL ANY COOLING OVERNIGHT. THIS ON
TOP OF INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY HAMPER ANY RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE ONGOING FREEZE WARNING WILL BE LEFT ALONE AS SHELTERED
AREAS MAY STILL MANAGE TO FALL TO AROUND THE 30-32F RANGE THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS FAIRLY LOW.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST WARMER DAY WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ALONG THE LEE
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS MIDDAY. CONTINUED DOWNSLOPING FLOW
WILL PROMOTE WARMING AND DRYING BENEATH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE 12-16C RANGE. THE RESULT IS AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MAY. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HINTS AT FAIRLY REASONABLE MIXING HEIGHTS
WHICH CAUSES SOME CONCERN ABOUT WINDS POTENTIALLY OVERACHIEVING
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS PARTICULARLY CONCERNING AS A BELT OF
STRONGER H7 FLOW CROSSES CENTRAL NEBRASKA MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN LESS
THAN 20 MPH BUT INSPECTION OF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MOMENTUM
TRANSFER MAY MANAGE TO PRODUCE GUSTS CLOSER TO 25-30 MPH. WITH THE
WARMTH AND APPROACH OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR ALL OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. SHOULD WINDS TREND A LITTLE STRONGER THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING, FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY. LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, BEHIND A PACIFIC FRONT, A MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE
WITHIN A RICHER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORCING WILL LARGELY BE DRIVING BY AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE ADVERTISED AS MUCAPE <
500 J/KG FROM THE WEDNESDAY EVENING HREF RUN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW SURFACE BASED STORMS OVERTOP A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, THE
PROTOTYPICAL INVERTED-V SOUNDING. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ANY ACTIVITY AND EXTENDED HRRR/RAP RAW
OUTPUT SHOWS STRONG SURFACE WINDS IN VICINITY OF ANY ACTIVITY. FOR
NOW, BELIEVE ANY GUSTS WOULD BE SUB-SEVERE THOUGH SPEEDS UP TO 50
MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY OTHER CONVECTIVE HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HREF
PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN QPF SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAIN
BUT LIMITED COVERAGE OF ANYTHING EXCEEDING 0.10". AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, INSTABILITY WILL WANE
AND ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
RETURN BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY, LIKELY SOONER FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
WITH REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUDS AND THE IMPROVED MOISTURE, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILDER SIDE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE DAY. BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD EARLY. RESULTING SUBSIDENCE WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES AND
ANOTHER DAY OF MILD TEMPERATURES. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ONLY FALL
SLIGHTLY BEFORE RECOVERING AGAIN TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS AT H85.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE
AREA RESIDES UNDER STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL
SUPPORT INCREASED DEW POINTS EARLY BUT DRY AIR WILL AGAIN INFILTRATE
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON HIGHS (UPPER 60S, MIDDLE 70S) AND FALLING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES. UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN REGARDING HOW LOW MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES FALL AND THIS IS LIKELY THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH REGARD
TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. DEEP MIXING SHOULD AGAIN PROMOTE MOMENTUM
TRANSFERS CAPABLE OF 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS BUT WHERE THE DRIEST AIR
SETS UP MAY LIMIT OVERLAP OF STRONGEST WINDS AND CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITY. FOR NOW, THE GOING FORECAST CALLS FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS
REACHING AROUND 20 PERCENT WITH RATHER LIMITED COVERAGE OF THESE
VALUES IN ZONE 209. THUS, NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS
PACKAGE, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. EXPECT ANOTHER
SIMILAR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BENEATH
INCREASING CLOUDS WITHIN THE CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
AN ACTIVE START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MODEST INSTABILITY (CAPE NEAR 550 J/KG, LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6 C/KM) ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND INTO THE PANHANDLE
WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME STRONGER TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL,
NOT EXPECTING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH AS THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER RAIN PATTERN. IF A STORM OR TWO
CAN BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND DISCRETE, THERE MIGHT BE A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL HAIL OR STRONG WINDS. STILL, DESPITE RAIN
SHOWER POTENTIAL LASTING MUCH SATURDAY, QPF WILL BE MINIMAL WITH
THIS SYSTEM. GENERALLY EXPECTING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION. THIS DRIER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK
ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PUSH A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 20 TO 26
C RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING
HIGHS TO RISE BACK INTO THE 80S THROUGH EARLY WEEK. THERE IS EVEN A
POTENTIAL FOR LOCATIONS TO HIT THE LOW 90S ON MONDAY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL RISE BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARMER AIR SETTLES INTO THE
REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING ERRATIC
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT AT 15 KTS OR LESS, EXPECT STRONGER AND
GUSTY NEAR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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