498
FXUS63 KLBF 071846
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
146 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT, WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINE WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT.
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S AND THE LOWER 90S IN PLACES.
- A BIT OF A COOL DOWN TUESDAY BUT STILL MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
CURRENTLY, A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
MONTANA INTO WYOMING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE HEIGHT FALLS AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS,
SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT LOW TO MID-LEVEL LIFT FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AN AXIS OF INCREASING MOISTURE. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT MODEST INSTABILITY, WITH MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 600 J/KG
POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERTED-V PROFILES NEAR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY.
RECENT HREF AND CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS SIGNAL,
THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. LIMITED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ADDITIONAL SEVERE HAZARDS. DRY LIGHTNING MAY ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN
INITIALLY WITH ANY DEVELOPING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. IN TERMS OF QPF, HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SPOTTY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.10 TO 0.15 INCHES, THOUGH WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. ALONG WITH THIS, LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND GUSTY WINDS AWAY FROM THESE DEVELOPING STORMS COULD LEAD TO SOME
ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL. INSTABILITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO THE END OF THE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE KEEPING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
FRIDAY, HEIGHTS WILL RISE BEHIND TODAY'S DEPARTING SHORTWAVE,
RESULTING IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
SUPPORT CLEARING SKIES ALONG WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD,
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WHILE
HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY MORNING,
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL
AROUND 20 PERCENT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
UP TO 700MB ACROSS THE REGION, SUPPORTING MORE THAN EFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH LOOKING
MORE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE OVERLAP OF STRONGEST
WINDS AND LOWEST RH VALUES MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BENEATH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
SATURDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
WESTERN RIDGE. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MODEST INSTABILITY, WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 TO 600 J/KG
COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, MAY SUPPORT A
FEW STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN LOWER COMPARED TO FRIDAY, WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES REALLY BEGIN TO WARM MONDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HEIGHTS RISE BENEATH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH H7 TEMPERATURES RISING SEVERAL DEGREES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING SOME LIMITED GULF MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW TO MID 50S DEW POINTS
REACHING CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE
EDGE OF THE WARMER H7 TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST, AND COULD SEE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
MIX EASTWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
SOUNDING PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL. LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE THE LACK OF MUCH UPPER-
LEVEL FORCING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF RETURN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTH WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD BE MORE OF
AN ISSUE.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL COOL BACK HIGHS A LITTLE
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OPPOSED TO
MONDAY'S UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING ERRATIC
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT AT 15 KTS OR LESS, EXPECT STRONGER AND
GUSTY NEAR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LABENZ
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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