962
FXUS63 KLBF 081125
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
625 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY.
- A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 80S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BREAK INTO THE LOWER 90S.
- WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED NEARLY
EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEARLY
EVERY DAY, BRINGING NEAR DAILY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, A FEW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WERE CROSSING WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE MOST NOTABLE ARE WERE A NARROW BAND JUST SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WAS
FORMING ON THE FORWARD EDGE OF MODEST H7 FGEN. THOUGH ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, NO THUNDER WAS
ANTICIPATED. LINGERING DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR, CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS EXCEEDING 15F, WAS INHIBITING SOME
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE BUT ENOUGH LIFT ALLOWED FOR
SOME LOWER LEVEL SATURATION WHICH YIELDED LIGHT RAIN AT KANW. BELIEVE
THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EVEN
WITH LITTLE TO NO QPF FOR MANY, WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE (UP TO
20%) MENTION THROUGH DAYBREAK.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH BREEZY NORTH
WINDS. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL WYOMING
EARLY. THIS WILL PROPEL A SURFACE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND LEAD TO
NORTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. EVEN WITH THE NORTHERLY
FLOW SUPPORTING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA), TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM. AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE BOOSTED 2-3F ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, LARGELY DUE TO WARM H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE 14-18C
RANGE, FAIRLY DRY AIR, AND GUSTY WINDS PROMOTING A WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER. ALL OF THESE WILL COMBINE TO LEAD TO SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. LEANED ON MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH SOME INFLUENCE
FROM THE NAM12 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THIS PRODUCED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
70S, REACHING AROUND 75F SOUTHEAST OF AN IMPERIAL TO BUTTE LINE.
MODEST FLOW OFF THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE AS A BELT OF STRONGER H7
FLOW WILL SIT OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
ADEQUATE MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WINDS WITH MOMENTUM
TRANSFER GUSTS LIKELY SUPPORTING GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH, DECREASING TO
AROUND 20-25 MPH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF AN OGALLALA TO BURWELL LINE. AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SETTLES SOUTHEAST, SUBSIDENCE MAY DRAW SOME
DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY MINIMUMS FALLING TO
AROUND 20%. WHILE THIS REMAINS ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MOST OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA, ZONE 209 BEARS CLOSE WATCHING WITH THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY CRITERIA. FOR NOW, BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY TOUCH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IN THIS ZONE, BUT SHOULD FALL SHORT OF HITTING
FOR THREE HOURS. HREF MEAN HUMIDITY MINIMUMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
FALL TO AROUND 20% AND SIMILARLY, PROBABILITIES OF SEEING < 20% RH
AND > 15 MPH (SUSTAINED) WINDS IS LESS THAN 20%. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AS AN EXPANSIVE AFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP
AND MAY SUPPORT LESS MIXING. SO AFTER CAREFUL CONSIDERATION AND
COLLABORATION WITH EASTERN NEIGHBORS, HAVE OPTED TO FOREGO ANY
HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME
INCREASED CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE BLACK HILLS. NWP GUIDANCE
REMAINS FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC BUT WILL INSERT A SMALL MENTION OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PINE RIDGE. OTHER OUTPUT
SUGGEST SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE DEVELOPING CU FIELD TO
SUPPORT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SHOWER YIELDING PRECIPITATION THAT REACHES THE GROUND IS LOW SO WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BENEATH
INCREASING CLOUDS, MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED
WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE 40S.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS RIDGING
STALLS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS WILL
DRIVE A COOL FRONT SOUTH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY MIDDAY.
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON LIMITED
CONFIDENCE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS. RECENT NWP OUTPUT HAS SUGGESTED
PLACEMENT NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONGER
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA, FORECAST HIGHS HAVE
FALLEN SOME. THOUGH 70S TO NEAR 80F APPEAR ON TRACK FOR SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA, A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH MAY HOLD ONTO THE
60S. THIS IS HEDGING TOWARDS CAA WINNING OUT WHICH MODELS TEND TO
NOT HANDLE THE BEST BUT SHOULD BE CONSIDERED MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT
BEST. AS FORCING INCREASING FROM AN APPROACHING PV ANOMALY AND
DEVELOPING FGEN, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME POSSIBLE FAVORING THE WESTERN SANDHILLS THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE, INSTABILITY WILL
AGAIN BE LACKING AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GREATER FOCUS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA CLOSER
TO THE NOW STALLED BOUNDARY AND INFLUX OF GREATER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. STILL THOUGH, CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH
ACTIVITY BEING SHOWERY CONVECTION, QPF WILL BE SPOTTY. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE WETTING RAINS WHILE ADJACENT AREAS FAIL TO RECORD
MEASURABLE RAIN. BELIEVE HREF ENSEMBLE MAX OUTPUT IS VASTLY OVERDONE
WITH PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN OUTPUT BEING MORE REASONABLE AND
SUGGESTING SPOTTY AMOUNTS NEARING 0.25" WHILE MOST LOCATIONS FAIL TO
SEE 0.10". PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, THOUGH LIKELY IN LESSER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. PERSISTENT
CLOUD DEBRIS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES ON THE MILDER SIDE, EVEN AS
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. LOWS WILL TOUCH THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS BUT FAVOR UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
BY SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC
BORDER. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA, WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. FOR SUNDAY, NEAR SEASONAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED, WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SUNDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW TRACKS FURTHER TO THE EAST, ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BEGIN TRACKING
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRACKS FURTHER OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
CAUSING A SLIGHT FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE. AS AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION TO
THIS, WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. IN FACT, HIGHS ON MONDAY MAY BE
PUSHING NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, BRINGING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS BRINGS AT LEAST HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS
MONDAY, THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HUMIDITY. THERE IS A NOTABLE
DIFFERENCE IN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS FOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS,
WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARDS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THE GFS AND NBM TREND TOWARDS LOWER DEWPOINTS, AND THUS,
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. ALL THREE AT LEAST SHOW A GRADIENT
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 61 CORRIDOR, WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES TO THE WEST. AS THE FORECAST CURRENTLY STANDS, AT LEAST
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. GIVEN THAT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MOISTURE
STILL IN THE MODELS, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. HOWEVER, WILL
CERTAINLY BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES GIVEN THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR LOWER HUMIDITY ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA.
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS
STILL REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER, BY
WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
REMAINING SO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. COMPARING THESE HIGHS TO
LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY, THESE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR EARLY TO MID MAY, BUT STILL BELOW RECORD HIGHS.
WITH THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES, EXPECT TO SEE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL,
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. ALSO APPEARS THAT GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY WINDS MAY
LEAD TO ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE WEDNESDAY, WHEN
GUSTY CONDITIONS APPEAR MOST LIKELY. HOWEVER, MARGINAL WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED NEARLY EVERY DAY, SO WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FORECAST
TRENDS AS WE APPROACH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRAKA TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, BECOMING GUSTY BY MID MORNING.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WITH PEAK GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
INITIAL CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, A CUMULUS FIELD IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CEILINGS. THIS EVENING, AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS, WINDS
QUICKLY DROP TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SURFACE, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...RICHIE
AVIATION...RICHIE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page