641
FXUS63 KLBF 280543
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1243 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY IS LOW CONFIDENCE
GIVEN THE EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND MODEL RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL APPEAR
TO BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS. NORTH OF THE HIGH, CLOSED LOWS WERE NOTED OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY AND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF QUEBEC. FURTHER
WEST, A HIGH AMPLITUDE, BLOCKING RIDGE WAS PRESENT FROM NORTHERN
MISSOURI, NORTH-NORTHWE4ST INTO THE DAKOTAS, THEN NORTH INTO
NORTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHWESTERN MANITOBA. FURTHER WEST,
A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PRESENT OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WAS A PORTION OF A CLOSED LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF
OF LAKE TAHOE. AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE,
LOCATED OVER WISCONSIN AND NORTHEASTERN IOWA, LAS LED TO EASTERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH, A BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION, IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, EXTENDED
FROM NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA, WEST-NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN COLORADO. MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
PRESENT FROM NORTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SOUTHWESTERN AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA, WHILE CLOUD COVER WAS CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN
NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 2
PM CDT, RANGED FROM 79 DEGREES AT IMPERIAL, TO 87 DEGREES AT
VALENTINE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TONIGHT INTO EASTERN COLORADO. AS THIS FEATURE
MIGRATES NORTH, A BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, IMPACTING FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE EVENING. AS THIS FEATURE MIGRATES FURTHER
NORTH OVERNIGHT, THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH
FROM SOUTHWESTERN INTO WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HOW FAR NORTH THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
REACHES THURSDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS
INCLUDING THE NAM12 AND 12Z HRRR SOLNS DO DRIVE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS NORTH INTO WEST CENTRAL AND EVEN NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST, THERE IS A
SHARP CUTOFF IN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 0.01
INCHES. THE LATEST NBM ENSEMBLE FORECAST HAS A 50% CHANCE OF
0.01" PRECIPITATION EXCEEDANCE GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
ALLIANCE TO BROKEN BOW THURSDAY. THIS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY
HITS 70% GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. WHEN THE QPF
THRESHOLD IS RAISED TO 0.10" PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDANCE FALL
OFF SHARPLY AND ARE LIMITED TO 20 TO 50% SOUTH OF I-80. THAT
BEING SAID, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHWEST
(30-50%) WITH POPS GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS NORTH OF
I-80. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MY NORTHERN NEIGHBORS, DECIDED TO
EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA IF THE DETERMINISTIC NAM12 AND 12Z HRRR DOES
HAPPEN TO VERIFY. THE SHORTWAVE, WILL TRANSITION EAST FROM
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT THE BEST LIFT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES EAST
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY EVENING THE LATEST GFS AND NAM12 SOLNS
DEVELOP A NICE CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH
THE 12Z HRRR NOT AS INDICATIVE OF PRECIPITATION. THE NBM
FORECAST GENERALLY INITIALIZED WITH LOWER POPS AND MADE SOME
CHANGES MAINLY TO EXTEND POPS FURTHER NORTH INTO EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE, ANCHORED OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA,
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO EJECT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FRIDAY. BY 00Z
SATURDAY THIS FEATURE IS LOCATED IN UTAH PER THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC GFS, NAM12 AND EC SOLNS. DOWN STREAM OF THIS LOW,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG THE LOW, A DRYLINE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND
FROM SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS PER THE 12Z NAM12. THE GFS HAS THIS BOUNDARY
FURTHER EAST INTO KANSAS. AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE
MAIN LOW LATE FRIDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP INVOF
THIS BOUNDARY. THE MAIN FOCUS OF CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
THE GFS IS OVER KANSAS WITH THE NAM12 SOLN DEVELOPING CONVECTION
ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. PWATS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE ON THE ORDER
1.00 TO 1.25" WHICH IS ABOVE THE 100% IRE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK<20KTS SO THE SEVERE THREAT
IS FAIRLY LIMITED ATTM. HOWEVER, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS AND
WEAK MID LEVEL STEERING WINDS.
ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM UTAH INTO NORTHERN
WYOMING. ONCE AGAIN, BY AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
FROM NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NW KANSAS. WITH SURFACE HEATING AND
A WEAKENING AFTERNOON CAP, CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF THE
DRYLINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM12 SOLNS DEVELOP
CONVECTION ALONG THIS FEATURE IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST, DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR 30-
40 KTS COULD LEAD TO STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY, WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE
STORMS SATURDAY IN THE LATEST SWED, HOWEVER, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED
IF SOME PORTION OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA IS PLACED
IN THE NEW SWED OUTLOOK RELEASED TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH WILL TRACK NORTH FROM WYOMING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY LEADING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH PREVALENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND MID
LEVEL FORCING, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SEEM PLAUSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THIS MAY INTRODUCE SOME
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS, AND POTENTIAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN HEAVIER
RAIN SHOWERS. WILL KEEP TAFS VFR FOR NOW, BUT MAY SEE SOME
REFINEMENT WITH FOLLOW ON FORECASTS. BY THE EVENING, LOWER CEILINGS
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING LOW END VFR ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AND IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...RICHIE
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