467
FXUS63 KLBF 281740
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1240 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT.
- STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.
- HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
HUMIDITY SHOULD BE A BUT HIGHER TODAY, AS SOMEWHAT DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WORKS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS DO
CONTINUE, BUT WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITY FIRE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN
CAPPED AT ELEVATED AND ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA IN AREAS
WHICH HAVE YET TO GREEN UP FROM LACK OF RAINFALL. OTHERWISE A
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO WORKS IT'S WAY SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
KS. AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
THOUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS THE
AREA. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, CARRYING ANY CONVECTION FROM KS OR NEW DEVELOPMENT
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL SHEAR PROFILE IS REALLY NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORM, BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
LOCALIZED TRAINING OF SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH WOULD PRODUCE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS
THREAT IS LOW AS SHOWERS APPEAR THEY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED ENOUGH
AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS TONIGHT AS IT LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. LOOSE MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY, AND PRIMARILY JUST
EXPECTING SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT.
FRIDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR
EAST THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE, AS THE GREATER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS, A STRONGER
STORM OR TWO MAY TRY AND PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
BUT WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. STRONG WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH, TRACKING OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTH, EXPECT A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS,
CREATING SURFACE FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, LATEST RUNS HAVE
SUGGESTED INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER BULK SHEAR VALUES, SUGGESTING A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN FACT, WITH
THE LATEST GUIDANCE, SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR
A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN NEBRASKA, MOSTLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST TRENDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
ESPECIALLY AS THE MESOSCALE FEATURES CAN BECOME MORE RESOLVED.
EITHER WAY, SATURDAY CERTAINLY BRINGS A RISK FOR SOME ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION.
AS FOR SUNDAY, AS THE LOW CONTINUES LIFTING NORTH, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE. STILL, GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL REMNANT FORCING, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
LOWER, GIVEN WEAKER FORCING.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
SOME AGREEMENT IN THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL KEEP A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO MID WEEK. FOR
NOW, THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA, BRINGING LOW END VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO
KLBF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY AT
10 TO 15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS. BY THIS EVENING, LOW STRATUS DECK
TRACKS IN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EXPANDING NORTHWARD. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE RECENT MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUD
DECK, PATCHY FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OVER SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TONIGHT BUT DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL COVERAGE
HAS BEEN OMITTED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...RICHIE
AVIATION...MRS
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