012
FXUS63 KLBF 290523
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1223 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND MORE FAVORABLE
WIND FLOW ALOFT, THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
- HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH EXTENDED
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH MINNESOTA AND THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. WEST OF THIS
FEATURE, CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR RENO NEVADA.
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE WAS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED
FROM NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. A
BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION WAS PRESENT EARLIER THIS MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION
DRIFTED INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA EARLIER TODAY. BY MID
AFTERNOON...A BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION HAD LIFTED INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, WHILE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED FROM HAYES AND WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY
INTO PERKINS, KEITH ARTHUR, GARDEN AND DEUEL COUNTIES. SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND 2 PM CDT READINGS RANGED FROM 70 AT IMPERIAL,
TO 82 AT O'NEILL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ORIENTED FROM NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE VORT MAX AT THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE,
WILL LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS TONIGHT, THEN THE
EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY. DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SHORTWAVE, AND
EASTERLY WINDS, WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT, ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NORTH PLATTE TO
VALENTINE. POPS WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM BROKEN BOW TO BASSETT AND
POINTS EAST WHERE THE LATEST NBM ENSEMBLES HAVE A 60 TO 80%
CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.10 INCHES OF 12HR QPF EAST OF A BROKEN BOW
TO BASSETT LINE. FURTHER WEST, THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
DROP OFF QUICKLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. HOWEVER, ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY MILD TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE NBM INITIALIZED WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR LOWS AND THESE WERE TRENDED UPWARD
TOWARD THE WARMER MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ON THE ANTICIPATION OF
OVERCAST CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT MOIST EASTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT. WAS CONCERNED A LITTLE ABOUT FOG TONIGHT IN THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER THE LATEST SHORT TERM DETERMINISTIC SOLNS
ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FOG ATTM. ON FRIDAY, HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 70S IN THE EAST WHERE PERSISTENT CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. FURTHER WEST, HIGHS WILL REACH CLOSE
TO 80 THANKS TO SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE (RENO LOW MENTIONED IN THE
SYNOPSIS ABOVE) WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES UTAH. A LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FRONT RANGES OF
COLORADO AND WYOMING LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MIGRATING INTO THE
PANHANDLE FRIDAY EVENING. OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS WEAK
FRIDAY EVENING SO THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE OFF TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LAPSE RATES AND TIMING OF STORMS IS
MORE FAVORED TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, DECIDED TO
KEEP AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET ALONG WITH DECENT MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE
AREA AND THESE LOWS WERE MODIFIED UPWARD FROM THE NBM FORECAST
AND MORE TOWARD THE WARMER MET AND MAV GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM UTAH INTO WYOMING ON
SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH OF
THE LOW, AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTH INTO THE
PANHANDLE, SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL BE A SURFACE TROUGH WITH A
DRYLINE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLNS INITIATE
CONVECTION INVOF THE DRYLINE AND INVERTED TROUGH. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS DECENT SATURDAY AND A NOSE OF 65+F DEW POINTS PUSHES
NORTHWEST FROM KANSAS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING AT THE 12Z
NAM12 FOR SATURDAY, SB CAPES REACH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 30 TO 40 KTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE CURRENT SWED HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE. AS FOR SEVERE
TYPE, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
HOWEVER, A TORNADO OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY INVOF
THE DRYLINE ACROSS FAR SW NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED
NORTH EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS NOTED
WITH THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR MAY
BE THE LIMITED WIND SPEEDS IN THE MID LEVELS RE. H500 WINDS ARE
MARGINALLY STRONG ~30 TO 40 KTS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW, WILL ASSIST IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ATTM THE
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS BRING DRIER BL AIR INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PROCEED TO SPIN ACROSS MONTANA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, SLOWLY
EXITING NORTH INTO CANADA BY TUESDAY MORNING. TWO DECENT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUMP AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS STILL UP IN
THE AIR, GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT, CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL THEN MIGRATE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS USUALLY RESULTS IN AN ABUNDANCE OF MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND, WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVERNIGHT THROUGH
16Z FRIDAY AT THE KLBF TERMINAL. IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST AT
KLBF FROM 08Z UNTIL 16Z, WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KVTN FROM 10Z
THROUGH 22Z AT KVTN. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE PREVAILING EAST
OF THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...ROBERG
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