314
FXUS63 KLBF 291717
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1217 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
ONGOING SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING, CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 83, AS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. IT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR HOW FAR EAST THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE THIS
EVENING. CAMS HAVE SEVERAL DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS, BUT WITH THE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINING WEST
OF THE AREA, WOULD EXPECT THAT THE SOLUTIONS THAT KEEP MUCH OF
THE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SEEM THE MOST
REASONABLE. OVERALL SHEAR INTO THIS EVENING IS WEAK, AND MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY MODERATELY STEEP, AND SEVERE STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY.
SATURDAY IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR AS WELL. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED MID-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND THROUGH THE DAY AS
UPPER LEVEL FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION SHOULD
MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM
FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE NE/KS
BORDER. ANY STORM THAT MOVES OUT OF NORTHEAST CO NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY COULD POSE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. OTHERWISE AS
ASCENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING, NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80. THESE WOULD BE MORE ELEVATED AND COULD POSE A
HAIL THREAT AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND OVERALL SHEAR
INCREASES, SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A SLIGHT RISK
COVERS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING
INTO WESTERN MONTANA. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY 12Z
SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY EVENING. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WITH WEST FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. 20-40 POPS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER MONTANA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT, AS A DISTURBANCE BREAKS
DOWN AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL THEN MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
THURSDAY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS, WITH PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR EAST AND
NORTH SHOWERS WILL MOVE IS STILL LOW. ANY SHOWERS DO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC WINDS RESULTING IN SOME AVIATION
CONCERNS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS COME TO AN END EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, LINGERING MOISTURE MAY CREATE AREAS OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. FOG WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO
CLOUDY SKIES WITH CEILINGS BELOW 2000 FEET.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...KULIK
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