263
FXUS63 KLBF 300629
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
129 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTAL NEBRASKA FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE, AND A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH AMPLE HUMIDITY AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED PERIOD TO THE
AREA MONDAY RIGHT THOUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK. LATER FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE ANY
POTENTIAL STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
AT 06Z, AN MCV WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTY, WITH A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH
INTO WEST CENTRAL NE. THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND TO THE EAST ACROSS BLAINE,
LOUP AND EASTERN CUSTER COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NE AND WEAKEN/DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TODAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHWEST WY, WITH A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CO BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN TO NEAR 997MB ACROSS
EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN KS. NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW, A DEEP
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEBRASKA.
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 EAST OF MERRIMAN THROUGH
HAYES CENTER. A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT SHOULD BECOME LOCATED FROM
NEAR HOLYOKE CO THROUGH OBERLIN KS BY 00Z, WITH MUCH DRIER AND
WARMER AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. SBCAPES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
2500-3500 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN NE, POSSIBLY HIGHER JUST NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT, WHERE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30-45KTS AND
0-3KM HELICITY 150-250. H85-H7 LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP
NEAR 10C/KM SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KS INTO
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION,
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
NORTHEAST CO AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORM MOTION FOR RIGHT
MOVING SUPERCELLS IS NORTHEAST AT 20KTS. THE INITIAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NE, THE PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS. THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO EARLY IN THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT (I80 AND SOUTH). COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE SCATTERED AND MAY CONGEAL INTO A FEW LARGE CLUSTERS OF
STORMS MID TO LATE EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NE, WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS STILL POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST TO NEAR AINSWORTH THROUGH
BROKEN BOW BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH WESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
BEHIND THE TROUGH. LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY, WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING TO 35 TO 45 ACROSS THE WEST. WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND FAR SOUTHWEST AND HUMIDITY
AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
SUNDAY NIGHT, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH DRIER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS FROM 45 TO 55 WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
APPEARS MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE RATHER UNSETTLED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK IT'S WAY
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY TO NEAR THE WINNIPEG AREA
BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT, AND SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY
AT TIMES. FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER
STORMS AT TIMES, BUT TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION. OTHERWISE, QUITE WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE
IN THE MID 80S MONDAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
AN AREA OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AND THEN
DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS MORNING (SATURDAY). OTHERWISE, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THEN LIFT
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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