066
FXUS63 KLBF 302008
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
308 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREATS, AND TORNADOES BEING A SECONDARY THREAT.
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED NEAR-DAILY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE NEXT WEEK WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS
NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION TO THIS, CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WITH A WELL
DEFINED DRY LINE LINE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH. AS THIS LOW PUSHES
NORTHEASTWARD, THE DRY LINE WILL ALSO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BRINGING WITH IT A STEEP GRADIENT OF DEWPOINTS AND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FRONT. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES
POTENTIALLY ABOVE 3000 J/KG, LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 TO 9 C/KM, AND 0-6
KM SHEAR UP TO 50 KNOTS), A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS INITIALLY BEFORE
BECOMING MORE LINEAR IN NATURE AS THEY PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE MAIN THREATS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH LARGE HAIL (AT LEAST 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER)
AND STRONG WINDS (AT LEAST 65 MPH) BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SEVERE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EVENING, GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AFTER MIDNIGHT CT WHEN INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. DESPITE THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL LESSENING AFTER MIDNIGHT, SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME ON THE STRONGER SIDE EVEN, WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING WHEN
STORMS COMPLETELY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS THE SEVERE
THREAT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
THROUGH NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
COMBINING WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA PROVIDING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THIS DRYLINE
(MAINLY EAST OF US-183) WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.
EVEN THEN, THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOT OF MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THIS MAY INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA WITH
THE MAIN ACTION FOCUSED MORE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
REGARDLESS, NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE, BUT A SMALL WINDOW
OF SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE PUSHING TO THE EAST OUT OF OUR AREA.
BEYOND SUNDAY, THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH NEBRASKA CREATING NEAR-DAILY
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE
SEVERE RISK REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
THOUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AND SOME MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
REGION, CONFIDENCE IN A STRONGER OR BRIEFLY SEVERE STORM IS HIGH
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STAY TUNED AS WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ENVIRONMENT HEADED INTO NEXT WEEK FOR THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAIN WARM AND MILD AS
CONTINUED WAA PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING, ERRATIC WINDS AS
WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STORMS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING, BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY
STILL IMPACT NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE SKIES MAY REMAIN OVERCAST, CEILINGS WILL
RISE BACK INTO VFR BY LATE MORNING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...KULIK
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