312
FXUS63 KLBF 310544
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1244 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREATS, AND TORNADOES BEING A SECONDARY THREAT.
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED NEAR-DAILY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE NEXT WEEK WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS
NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION TO THIS, CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WITH A WELL
DEFINED DRY LINE LINE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH. AS THIS LOW PUSHES
NORTHEASTWARD, THE DRY LINE WILL ALSO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BRINGING WITH IT A STEEP GRADIENT OF DEWPOINTS AND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FRONT. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES
POTENTIALLY ABOVE 3000 J/KG, LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 TO 9 C/KM, AND 0-6
KM SHEAR UP TO 50 KNOTS), A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS INITIALLY BEFORE
BECOMING MORE LINEAR IN NATURE AS THEY PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE MAIN THREATS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH LARGE HAIL (AT LEAST 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER)
AND STRONG WINDS (AT LEAST 65 MPH) BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SEVERE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EVENING, GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AFTER MIDNIGHT CT WHEN INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. DESPITE THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL LESSENING AFTER MIDNIGHT, SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME ON THE STRONGER SIDE EVEN, WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING WHEN
STORMS COMPLETELY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS THE SEVERE
THREAT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
THROUGH NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
COMBINING WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA PROVIDING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THIS DRYLINE
(MAINLY EAST OF US-183) WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.
EVEN THEN, THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOT OF MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THIS MAY INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA WITH
THE MAIN ACTION FOCUSED MORE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
REGARDLESS, NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE, BUT A SMALL WINDOW
OF SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE PUSHING TO THE EAST OUT OF OUR AREA.
BEYOND SUNDAY, THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH NEBRASKA CREATING NEAR-DAILY
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE
SEVERE RISK REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
THOUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AND SOME MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
REGION, CONFIDENCE IN A STRONGER OR BRIEFLY SEVERE STORM IS HIGH
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STAY TUNED AS WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ENVIRONMENT HEADED INTO NEXT WEEK FOR THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAIN WARM AND MILD AS
CONTINUED WAA PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A BRIEF PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE KLBF TERMINAL
UNTIL 07Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL 12Z ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WHICH SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KVTN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A WESTERLY
WIND GUSTING TO NEAR 20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...ROBERG
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