097
FXUS63 KLBF 010539
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN
THREATS.
- LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED NEAR-DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT PLAINS.
WHILE PREVIOUS FORECASTS INDICATED SOME LOW PROBABILITIES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA,
IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR LESS LIKELY THIS WILL HAPPEN. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND IOWA. I HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED ALL MENTIONS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE GOING FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS NEW GUIDANCE
GIVING ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST UP TO 35 MPH THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE DIMINISHING. DESPITE RECENT
RAINFALL AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG CONCERNS
AS A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT RH VALUES IN THE
70 TO 85 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS INHIBITING ANY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM CONDENSING.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL EASILY
CONTINUE TO PUSH A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SURFACE HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 80S TODAY (NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S) WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S TONIGHT(NORMAL IN THE LOW 50S).
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR A SURFACE LOW
TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR TO THE WEST, THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN
JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENCOUNTERING MORE
STABLE AIR TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT CT. WHILE
STORMS MY INITIALLY BE MORE DISCRETE, BY THE TIME THEY MOVE INTO
NEBRASKA, EXPECTING THEM TO BE MORE LINEAR IN NATURE. THIS WILL
INDICATE THE MAIN THREATS IN NEBRASKA TO BE MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME SMALLER HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, A HEAVIER SHOWER MAY RESULT IN
SOME MINOR RISES IN LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE THAT MAY HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL OVER AN INCH OVER THE PAST
WEEKEND.
BEYOND MONDAY, THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH NEBRASKA CREATING NEAR-DAILY
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS
TIME THE SEVERE RISK REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S THOUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AND SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION, CONFIDENCE IN A STRONGER OR BRIEFLY SEVERE STORM
IS HIGH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY IS
GREATEST. STAY TUNED AS WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH THIS WEEK FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAIN WARM AND MILD AS
CONTINUED WAA PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AT THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS. SCATTERED WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. HAVE A PREVAILING P6SM -TSRA
BKN070CB AT KLBF 02Z-06Z. LOWER VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...ROBERG
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