904
FXUS63 KLBF 011745
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1245 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR, ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MORE SCATTERED AREAS OF RAINFALL AND STORMS CONTINUE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
- TURNING WARMER AND DRIER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 85
TO 90.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
IN THE MID-LEVELS AND PERSISTS THROUGH AT NOONTIME TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE
MID-LEVEL WAA. THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
NEARER THE UPPER LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
NEVERTHELESS, EXPECTING SOME ACTIVITY WITHIN THE WAA REGIME.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. NOT
SURE HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HREF SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
SURFACE BASED CAPE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS (LOW TO MID 50S) ADVECTING
WESTWARD. SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD MATERIALIZE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES TONIGHT, AND MOST CAMS AGREE THAT A LOOSELY
ORGANIZED MCS SHOULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND MOVE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SHEAR IS STRONG AND HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS WILL
LIKELY BE THE MODE AS STORMS FIRST DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY BE THE MODE BY TONIGHT AS MANY
UPDRAFTS DEVELOP AIDED BY THE LOW-LEVEL JET. LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR
AT FIRST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A WIND THREAT
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FORCING IS DECENT AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. PWATS/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE, AND EVEN THOUGH THE OVERALL SHEAR DECREASES SOME, STRONGER
STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AN H5 DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOCATED FROM
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST.
AMPLE GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PWATS AS HIGH AS 1 INCH NORTHWEST
SANDHILLS TO 1.4 INCHES SOUTHWEST AND EAST. SURFACE DEWPOINTS COULD
RANGE AS HIGH AS THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 65. AS THE DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NE AND THE EASTERN
SANDHILLS, IT WILL INTERACT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCAPES REACH 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON, WHILE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK AT 20 TO 25 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR AREAS GENERALLY NEAR AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
THURSDAY THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL. STILL SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS IN THE LOW
80S. ON FRIDAY, SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AS A WEAK NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH FOCUSES THE BETTER LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WARMER FROM 85 TO 90 AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE REGION, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THAT COULD CAUSE
SOME VERY LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS BUT SHOULD STAY OUTSIDE OF BOTH
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS, GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT
BRINGING GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VISIBILITY
DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. AS SUCH, LOCALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL STORMS CLEAR OUT JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY MID TUESDAY
MORNING WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS, GUSTING TO UP TO 25 KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...ROBERG
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