175
FXUS63 KLBF 012024
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
324 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN
THREATS.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A CONTINUED NEAR-DAILY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND A SURFACE LOW TO
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER.
CONVECTION TO BEGIN JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE
STORMS MY INITIALLY BE MORE DISCRETE, BY THE TIME THEY MOVE INTO
NEBRASKA, EXPECTING THEM TO BE MORE LINEAR IN NATURE, PERHAPS EVEN
HAVING SOME BOWING SEGMENTS. THIS WILL INDICATE THE MAIN THREATS IN
NEBRASKA TO BE MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
SOME SMALLER HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED, A HEAVIER SHOWER MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR RISES IN LOW
LYING AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS, ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT MAY HAVE
RECEIVED RAINFALL OVER AN INCH OVER THE PAST WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO
SOME INDICATION OF SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH
BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD, SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND. THIS WILL
POSE AN ADDITIONAL WIND THREAT EVEN AFTER THE MAIN GUSTS AND HAZARDS
WITH THE STORM HAVE PASSED. GREATEST INDICATION FOR THIS FEATURE
WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 97, BUT
THE EXACT LOCATIONS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. AS STORMS ENCOUNTER MORE
STABLE AIR TO THE EAST THEY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AND EVENTUALLY
PUSH EAST OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING,
BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS CONTINUE TO
TRACK THROUGH NEBRASKA CREATING NEAR-DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOR TUESDAY, A WEAK FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY (CAPE
UP TO 1500 J/KG, LAPSE RATES OF 6 TO 7 C/KM) TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEBRASKA FOR SEVERE STORMS.
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL, HOWEVER, SOME
GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS BEGIN TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD BY
MID TO LATE EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OUT OF THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE EVENING. SOME LINGERING, SUB-SEVERE STORMS
MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
DAWN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR WEDNESDAY, A NEARLY CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY IS EXPECTED AS THE
FRONT, AND THEREFORE SEVERE THREAT, MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST. OVERALL,
THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT
DECENT INSTABILITY (STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, MODERATE CAPE, AND
SOME WIND SHEAR) WILL STILL EXIST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS REGION
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS SOME HAIL.
THURSDAY BRINGS ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
REGION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND SANDHILLS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WHILE DETAILS FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE PROVIDED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS CONTINUED
WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THAT COULD CAUSE
SOME VERY LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS BUT SHOULD STAY OUTSIDE OF BOTH
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS, GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT
BRINGING GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VISIBILITY
DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. AS SUCH, LOCALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL STORMS CLEAR OUT JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY MID TUESDAY
MORNING WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS, GUSTING TO UP TO 25 KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...MRS
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