450
FXUS63 KLBF 021730
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON ANY STORMS TODAY IS LOW. AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS MORNING'S
DEPARTING CLUSTER OF STORMS. AFTERNOON STORMS COULD MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING, BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE
LACKING DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY.
- HIGHER CONFIDENCE WEDNESDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. ALSO A COUPLE
OF DIFFERENT BOUNDARIES FOR STORMS TO FOCUS ON BY LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND HUMID CONDITIONS THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
- TURNING WARMER AND DRIER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS 85 TO
90.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN ACROSS NORTHERN MT AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. FORCING IS DECENT
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. A MESO-HIGH BEHIND THIS MORNING'S MCS COULD
TEND TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY TODAY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS
FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP WITHIN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DRIFT TOWARD
WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. CAMS HAVE SEVERAL DIFFERENT SCENARIOS
AND UNSURE HOW FAR THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM STORMS THAT DO TRACK EASTWARD.
WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING MORE SURE IN TERMS OF CONVECTION. THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE ND BORDER. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS CENTRAL SD WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. AS THE LOW
DEEPENS, SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND WILL HELP DRAW MID TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY
STEEP, AND WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2500-4000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST
VALUES WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
APPEARS TO POSSIBLE AREAS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. 1) THE COLD
FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND 2) A CONFLUENCE ZONE
LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. OVERALL SHEAR LOOS
SUPPORTIVE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY AND UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO AN MCS WEDNESDAY EVENING AIDED BY AN INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL JET.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
THURSDAY THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL. A DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY EXISTS. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. STILL LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE EAST. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, UPPER RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND WEST COAST. WARMER AND HUMID WITH HIGHS FROM 85 TO 90.
LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST,
WITH LOWS POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THOUGH UPPER RIDGING
STILL REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
SOME STRONGER EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVING TONIGHT.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND PUSH INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST THAT STORMS
WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NEBRASKA INCLUDING KVTN WHERE STRONG, ERRATIC
WINDS AS WELL AS SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH, WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, STILL
THINK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL IMPACT AREAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AS FAR SOUTH AS I-80. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE DAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...KULIK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page