852
FXUS63 KLBF 022321
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
621 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CONTINUED NEAR-DAILY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. OVERALL INSTABILITY OF THE REGION IS MODERATE WITH
CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG AND LAPSE RATES OF 6 TO 7 C/KM. DESPITE THIS,
SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY MINIMAL (GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS).
STILL, ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS (UP TO 65 MPH) AS WELL AS SOME BRIEFLY SEVERE HAIL
(1 TO 1.5 INCHES). STORMS INITIATE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE
PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND DRIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS PUSHING OUT OF THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST BY LATE EVENING WITH THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN GENERALLY
REMAINING ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA (PINE RIDGE REGION). SOME
LINGERING, SUB-SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
(EAST OF US-83) OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN IN THE AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL
GUIDANCE MAKING CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH ON THE
LOWER SIDE. REGARDLESS, ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT, WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS CONTINUE TO
TRACK THROUGH NEBRASKA CREATING NEAR-DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOR WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE SET-UP REMAINS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, THE
SEVERE THREAT MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST. OVERALL, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
MOSTLY REMAIN NORTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA, BUT SOME DECENT INSTABILITY
(STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, MODERATE CAPE, AND WIND SHEAR) WILL
STILL EXIST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
SANDHILLS. DEVELOPMENT IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO START OFF ISOLATED
BY LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CONGEALING INTO A LINE BY MID-EVENING. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
EARLY, TRANSITIONING OVER TO A MOSTLY WIND THREAT BY MID TO LATE
EVENING.
THURSDAY BRINGS ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE DETAILS FOR THIS SYSTEM IS TILL A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS WILL INITIALIZE
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ENTERING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE
SANDHILLS BY MID-EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP, WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS. FURTHER
DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROVIDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS CONTINUED
WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL: EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH BROKEN CEILINGS RANGING FROM 7000 TO 10000 FT AGL.
THERE IS A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL THIS EVENING. MOST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL AND WILL HANDLE THE MENTION
WITH A VCTS FOR ANY ISOLATED STORM WHICH MAY DEVELOP THIS
EVENING. AT THE KLBF TERMINAL, SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLOUD UP
OVERNIGHT WITH BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FT AGL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL THEN INCREASE BY LATE MORNING TO 10000 FT
AGL.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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