940
FXUS63 KLBF 031158
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
658 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) EXISTS.
- TURNING WARMER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY WARMING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAD CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN. A TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA, WESTERN WYOMING AND EASTERN IDAHO. DOWNSTREAM
OF THIS TROUGH, A DECENT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING, WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO.
FURTHER SOUTH, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS. A SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. RIDGING WAS PRESENT OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EXTENDED NORTH INTO EASTERN ONTARIO.
EAST OF THIS RIDGE WAS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH
EXTENDED FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN AND FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY BECAME MORE
PREVALENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 04Z TONIGHT AND IS
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY, WHICH IS DRAPED OVER NORTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST VAD WIND PROFILER
DATA FROM KLNX INDICATES A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT AND
THIS SHOULD AID IN THE CONTINUATION OF STORMS OVERNIGHT AS THEY
TRAVERSE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE
THREAT FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS IS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FOR TODAY, THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF
CONCERN FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FIRST AREA IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE, CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS LIFT THIS FEATURE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
TODAY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON, IT WILL
ENCOUNTER INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH SB CAPE'S REACHING 2000+
J/KG AND H850-H700 LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8-9C. BY 21Z, THE
LATEST NAM12 SOLN INDICATES LITTLE TO NO CIN WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE,
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS SW NEBRASKA IS ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25
KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD FAVOR A MARGINAL THREAT MORE
DRIVEN ON THERMODYNAMICS VS. SHEAR AND CONFINED TO PEAK HEATING
IE. LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. FURTHER NORTH,
THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS INVOF A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS FORECAST TO LIE FROM CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NW NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN DRIVER OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THE CLOSED LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN
(MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE SYNOPSIS SECTION). THIS LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
PUSH OF THIS FRONT WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AND AM EXPECTING THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
AND STRONG WINDS IN THESE AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH, THE FRONT WILL
STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION
EXPECTED INVOF THIS FEATURE. AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THEY
ARE GREATEST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, AS WELL AS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS SECOND AREA OF
CONVECTION, DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KTS
WHICH WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED LINEAR NATURE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA, THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT, EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA BY DAY BREAK THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH TWO AREAS BEING THE FOCUS. THE FIRST
AREA IS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA INVOF THE STALLED OUT FRONT. THE
SECOND AREA IS OVER THE PANHANDLE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE MAIN MODES OF SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT FAVOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WOULD
FAVOR A LARGE HAIL THREAT. IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND WINDS, THERE
APPEARS TO BE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE IS PARALLEL
TO THE H5 FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT FAVORING TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR HEAVY RAIN ALSO LIES WITH
FORECAST PWATS WHICH RANGE FROM 1.10"-GFS TO 1.30-NAM SOLN OR
NORTH OF THE 90%ILE FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
MIDDLE 80S TODAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
ON FRIDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE EAST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG, WITH
THE BETTER FOCUS NEAR THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S NORTH, TO AROUND 90 FAR
SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, UPPER RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
WEST COAST. WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WHILE
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING,
LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOWS POPS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THOUGH UPPER RIDGING STILL REMAINS OVER THE
REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KVTN UNTIL 14Z. 23Z TO 06Z, P6SM
-SHRA VCTS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS, WHERE VISIBILITY
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO 28KT AT KVTN EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
TO 20KT DURING THE DAY. AT KLBF, IFR CEILING ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL
15Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO GUSTY TO AROUND 20KT TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. AFTER 00Z AT KLBF, VCTS UNTIL 04Z.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...ROBERG
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