826
FXUS63 KLBF 032258
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
558 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE (10-15%) EACH AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, FAVORING THE SANDHILLS INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO OR TWO.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A
RETURN TO 90S FOR MANY BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
- NEAR-DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EARLY THIS
MORNING, PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LED TO
FAIRLY HEFTY RAINFALL TOTALS WITH ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
LIKELY WASHED OUT. A SURFACE COOL FRONT WAS SLOWLY SETTLING
SOUTHEAST INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THIS WILL BECOME THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOCAL AREA. A SECOND AREA WAS FORMING
ALONG A MOISTURE TONGUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
SWING OF TEMPERATURES WERE QUICKLY ERODING ANY LINGERING INHIBITION
WITHIN A REGION OF ~2500 J/KG MUCAPE BUT ONLY 20-25 KNOTS 0-6KM BWD.
STORMS IN THIS AREA REMAIN FAIRLY PULSEY IN NATURE WITH QUICK
UPDRAFT GROWTH CAPABLE OF AT LEAST SOME HAIL BEFORE CORES
IMMEDIATELY WANE. STORM MOTIONS ARE LARGELY FOLLOWING MEAN MID-LEVEL
FLOW WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST VECTORS. THIS MAY LEAD
TO A FEW STORMS GRAZING OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LATER ON, CONVECTION SHOULD
BLOSSOM ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OVER
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH WARMING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ERODE ANY LINGERING CAPPING BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF ROBUST CONVECTION. RECENT
HRRR RUNS HAVE HIGHLIGHTED 22-00Z (5-7PM CDT) FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
ACTIVITY QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST OFF THE BOUNDARY. THOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA, POOLING MOISTURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY INCLUDING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF SAID FEATURE WILL SUPPORT
2500-3500 J/KG MLCAPE WITH 25 TO POTENTIALLY 30 KNOTS OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR. LIMITED BACKED FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY AND KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT LOW. THAT SAID,
MODESTLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION TO THIS, INCREASED 3KM
DELTA THETA-E VALUES AND DCAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A
STRONG OUTFLOW WIND THREAT. AGREE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER'S
DECISION TO EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK SOUTH INTO CHERRY COUNTY WHILE
KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN THE MARGINAL RISK. WHILE
NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS, HREF PROBABILITY-MATCHED
MEAN (PMM) QPF OUTPUT HIGHLIGHTS SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE
SAME AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING FOR ANY RENEWED OR
ADDITIONAL HYDRO CONCERNS. CAMS CARRY PRECIPITATION THROUGH AREAS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING LIGHT
CHANCES TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE (< 25%)
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY FOR THE LOCAL AREA. THE
SETUP REMAINS FAIRLY CONVOLUTED AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TRACKS EAST
ACROSS KANSAS EARLY IN THE MORNING. INCREASED WARM-AIR ADVECTION
WILL LEAD TO EARLY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BUT THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL COME FROM THE WEST. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER
WYOMING WILL DRAW IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL PUSH UP AGAINST
THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM LOWER 80S IN THE CENTRAL ZONES TO NEAR 90F IN THE FAR WEST.
CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON, LARGELY ALONG FAVORED AREAS
OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT OUTSIDE THE LOCAL AREA, BUT NEAR ZONAL H5 FLOW
SHOULD CARRY ACTIVITY EAST WITH TIME INTO THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. A FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL SOMEWHERE OVER
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SERVE AS A GREATER FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT.
POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. HAIL WILL LARGELY FAVOR EARLY IN STORM LIFE CYCLES WHICH
MAY KEEP THE GREATEST THREAT OUTSIDE THE LOCAL AREA. THAT SAID,
SEVERE HAIL CERTAINLY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE AGAIN INTO THE LATE EVENING BUT WEAKEN QUICKLY AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES AND CAPPING RETURNS TO MUCH OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD IN WITH A RETURN TO
LOWER 90S FOR SOME BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
LATE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTH
AND LEAD TO A FAIRLY NOMINAL CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN DRY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY. THE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND LEAD TO FAIRLY EXPANSIVE POPS BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. BELIEVE POPS ARE A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE AND LATER
FORECASTS WILL LIKELY CLEAN THESE UP A BIT. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO
BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRENGTHENING DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. MORE
PRONOUNCED TROUGHING WILL ARRIVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL
PROMOTE ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL PROVE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUATION
OF ACTIVE WEATHER WITH DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING. AT THE
SAME TIME, ANOMALOUS HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. MEDIAN VALUES FROM THE BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION DEPICTS A QUICK CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGHER PERCENTILE OUTPUT HINTS AT A FEW LOCATIONS
REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS BEARS
WATCHING AS THE WOULD POTENTIALLY PUSH HEAT INDICES NEAR THE CENTURY
MARK AND LEAD TO SOME OF THE FIRST HEAT CONCERNS OF THE SEASON.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SINCE COVERAGE AND FOCUS
ARE UNCERTAIN, WILL HANDLE THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR BOTH
TERMINALS WITH A VCTS GROUP. FOR OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CEILINGS
RANGING FROM 15000 TO 20000 FT AGL.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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