777
FXUS63 KLBF 250002
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
702 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. THE GREATER SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA, WHERE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE SEVERE RISK
IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
CONCERN, GIVEN THE DURATION OF STORMS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND, EXPECT A RETURN TO NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL HIGHS AS
THE PATTERN CHANGES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
SEVERAL NIGHTS OF ACTIVE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A LESSER RISK ON THURSDAY. REGARDLESS OF
SEVERE RISK, STORMS OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS BRING A RISK FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE SANDHILLS, PROVIDING A MORE SUPPORTIVE
SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES. AS OF THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, STORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED, TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SANDHILLS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET BRINGS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL SUPPORT DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT AS
THE AFTERNOON TRACKS INTO THE EVENING. CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE, WITH STORMS TRACKING INTO THE SANDHILLS BY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED ENVIRONMENT, THE MAIN
THREATS STILL APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND
SO, AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS, WESTERN, AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING, A DEVELOPING LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
TRACK TO THE EAST, KEEPING WESTERN NEBRASKA IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARIES IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE GREATER SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO WIND DOWN AROUND MIDNIGHT, THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG, AND POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ANY STORM, ESPECIALLY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AGAIN. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH EXPECTED PWAT VALUES
EXCEEDING 1 INCH. OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
GIVEN THE CONTINUOUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD COMBINE TO HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
ONLY REACH THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO LIMIT THE ABILITY
FOR GREATER INSTABILITY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL STILL BE THE PRESENCE OF A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET, PROVIDING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW LOOKS LESS THAN FAVORABLE, THERE IS STILL A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS DOES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CONDITIONAL ON WHETHER OR NOT
INSTABILITY WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD IN, IF THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER. IF A MORE FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER
ENVIRONMENT WERE TO BE REALIZED, THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, THIS IS VERY
CONDITIONAL ON WHETHER GREATER INSTABILITY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
REGARDLESS, THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH IS FURTHER INCREASED GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DURATION OF PRECIPITATION.
LOOKING AHEAD TO FRIDAY, EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH BUILDING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GREATEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MORE ROBUST
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA, WITH MODEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS MAY SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA, THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
A PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
BY SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION,
BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMING WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO BREAK INTO THE LOWER 90S. THERE REMAINS
A DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE EUROPEAN AND GEFS ENSEMBLES FOR HIGHS
BREAKING 90 THIS WEEKEND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, WITH THE
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES CONTINUING TO FAVOR COOLER HIGHS. IN FACT, THE
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES HAVE LOWERED THE PROBABILITY FOR TEMPERATURES TO
BREAK 90 THIS WEEKEND, GENERALLY LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE NOW,
WHILE THE GEFS HAS INCREASED CHANCES, WITH THE GEFS NOW SUGGESTING A
90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BREAKING INTO THE 90S BY SUNDAY. REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER WE BREAK INTO THE 90S, TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FEEL A BIT
WARMER AFTER THE COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK, SO BE PREPARED IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS REMAINING AROUND THE UPPER 80S AND POTENTIALLY
LOWER 90S. FOR NOW, EXPECTING A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST.
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM IN VICINITY OF KOGA AND JUST SOUTH
OF DUE EAST MOTION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ARRIVAL INTO KLBF LATER
THIS EVENING, WITH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING MEDIUM AT BEST. SHORT-
TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOSER TO 02Z BUT CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS QUICKER THAN THAT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND
AS NECESSARY. BELIEVE DURATION OF IMPACTS WILL BE SHORT AND HAVE
A TEMPO GROUP BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS FOR TWO HOURS. ACTIVITY
WILL ALSO BE NEAR KVTN BUT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS.
LOW CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY THOUGH WHETHER THEY
BRING ANYTHING LESS THAN VFR CONDITIONS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. CAM
OUTPUT REMAINS FAIRLY SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO RAIN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY HEADING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT FOR NOW BUT LATER FORECASTS WILL
LIKELY SEE CONSIDERABLE ADJUSTMENTS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...RICHIE
AVIATION...NMJ
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