094
FXUS63 KLBF 251124
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
624 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
- PASSING HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL SUPPORT DRIER CONDITIONS WITH
CONTINUED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
THIS MORNING, STEADY RAIN AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
PERCOLATE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY IS LARGELY
DRIVEN BY A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SETTLING SOUTH
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS BY EARLIER CONVECTION AND RESULTING COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS WILL SUPPORT RENEWED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS MAY POSE A RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE AREA. HREF OUTPUT SHOWS LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS IN
CHASE COUNTY WHERE HEAVY RAINS FELL EARLIER. BELIEVE SOME HYDRO
THREAT MAY PERSIST BUT PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN OUTPUT SHOWS
GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF NEW RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING
THURSDAY SO NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTH. MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS, LAGGING MID-LEVEL FORCING VIA ADDITIONAL
FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ARC OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. RECENT HREF RUN SHOWS SLIGHT INCREASE
IN RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS BEING MORE
AGGRESSIVE. THIS POTENTIAL PERSISTS THROUGH MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BACKGROUND
ENVIRONMENT IS MUCH MORE MARGINAL WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE
WEATHER: MUCAPE LIMITED TO < 1000 J/KG. SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AS
H5 FLOW CONTINUES AROUND 30 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. WHILE
SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE, THE LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
FAIRLY BROAD FORCING SHOULD COMPLICATE THINGS WITH STORM
INTERACTIONS HAMPERING UPDRAFT STRENGTH. THE RESULT IS MORE
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FAVORED VERSUS SEVERE. THE SPC CONTINUES A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES. AT THIS TIME, BELIEVE THIS IS ADEQUATE AS THE SHEAR COULD
POTENTIALLY SUPPORT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO. THAT SAID,
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE
LOWER 60S FOR SOME ACROSS THE SANDHILLS WHICH WILL BE AROUND
20F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. RECENT MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY HELP INTRODUCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES THROUGH THE AREA, SOME FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE. WILL OMIT MENTION FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE
PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE CAN BE SORTED OUT.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...CALMER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO MODERATE TO THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80F THOUGH THIS REMAINS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB AGAIN DURING THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES REACHING THE LOWER 60S. THIS WILL PUSH UP
AGAINST A DRYLINE SETTING UP OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE/SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. A RELATIVELY NARROW PLUME OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
SET UP, LARGELY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP TO THE WEST WITHIN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH
SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, THE SHARP
INSTABILITY GRADIENT ALONG WITH INCREASED CAPPING WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT CASTS DOUBT ON HOW FAR EAST CONVECTION CAN REMAIN SUSTAINED.
RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM12 HAVE SHOWN STEADILY DECREASING QPF OUTPUT
EAST OF HIGHWAY 385 OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH
NBM PROBABILITIES WHICH SHOW < 10% FOR GREATER THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL ANYWHERE EAST OF THIS SAME LINE. THIS SUPPORTS A
LARGELY DRY FORECAST OUTSIDE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR FAR WEST
AND EVEN THESE ARE LIMITED TO 20% OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER BROAD HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AND WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM A DEVELOPING LLJ.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL US ON SATURDAY
BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (MID 80S) ON
SATURDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 20 TO
28 C RANGE PUSH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE HIGHS
TO RETURN TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. CONTINUED WAA INTO
NEBRASKA WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE
DRY SPELL WILL COME TO AN END BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS OFF THE ROCKIES BRINGING
A RETURN TO ISOLATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WHILE NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME, SOME STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE ENTIRELY POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS NEEDED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS MORNING. A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST
WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY BELOW 8000 FEET. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
BOTH TERMINALS, THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME LOWER CEILINGS AS
WELL AS REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH CEILINGS
REMAIN BELOW 2000 FEET THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...KULIK
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