625
FXUS63 KLBF 260520
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1220 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING, DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, LONGER
DURATION SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
- CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY ON FRIDAY, THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
- A PATTERN SHIFT THIS WEEKEND BRINGS A RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT
LIVED, WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES RETURNING AS EARLY AS
MONDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
WITH ONE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND ANOTHER LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE AIDING IN THE
LARGER SCALE ASCENT, CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER HAS GREATLY
LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH, SO NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, AS SEEN
FROM THE 18Z LBF SOUNDING, PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WHERE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DURATION IS INCREASED. FOR MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH,
EXPECTING THIS TO BE MOSTLY ADDITIONAL BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. AS THE
SOUTHERN LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, EXPECTING THAT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING, WITH
PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FRIDAY, THE LOW ACROSS WYOMING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST, TRACKING A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
SHOULD HELP BREAK UP SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER, AND WITH THE RETURN OF
DAYTIME HEATING, SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO
POTENTIALLY LOWER 80S, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS. A PUSH
OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHER
INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WYOMING, WHICH MAY BRING A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR AREAS TO OUR WEST. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
WYOMING TRACKING TO THE EAST, BUT QUICKLY WEAKENING AS THEY TRACK
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
PLATTE CWA REMAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING HAIL AND WINDS. HOWEVER,
THIS IS MOSTLY EXPECTED TO BE FOR THE STORMS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION AND WEAKENING. IF THE STORMS CAN HOLD TOGETHER FOR A BIT
LONGER, THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED CHANCES FOR HAIL IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE, BUT GENERALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION WILL MOSTLY REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY 61,
OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY,
USHERING IN A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES. ALONG WITH THE RIDGING,
A PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED, WHICH SHOULD BOOST HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND POTENTIALLY
INTO THE LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWS DISAGREEMENT ON PROBABILITIES OF HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ON
SUNDAY, WITH THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES STILL FAVORING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE TO BREAK 90. THE GEFS
HOWEVER, CONTINUES TO INDICATE A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BREAKING THE
90S, WITH THE NBM SHOWING A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF BREAKING INTO
THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BUT ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 61. AS A LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA, CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2, BUT THIS IS GENERALLY AROUND A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING. NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, HOWEVER, A STRONG CAP IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY LIMIT THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO
INITIATE, BUT MAY STILL KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE, IF THE DEEPER INSTABILITY OCCURS. OTHERWISE,
FOR MOST OF THE AREA, EXPECTING A MOSTLY DRY AND WARM FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND.
WITH RIDGING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DIG TO THE WEST. BY MONDAY, EXPECTING THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH, BRINGING NOT ONLY THE TROUGH FURTHER
EAST, BUT ALSO A FEW UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE LARGER FLOW
PATTERN. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WHICH IS
FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE JUNE INTO EARLY JULY. IN FACT, OUR TYPICAL
HIGHS ARE RIGHT AROUND 87 TO 88 DEGREES HEADING INTO JULY, SO EVEN
THE WARMER DAYS ARE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
MAIN IMPACTS TO EXPECT WITH THIS ENCROACHING TROUGH IS ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK,
POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS EVEN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEMS. AT THE VERY
LEAST, SOMETHING TO REMAIN MINDFUL OF FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS PERSISTS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA TERMINALS, WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO
VFR ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30KTS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...RICHIE
AVIATION...BROWN
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