027
FXUS63 KLBF 260819
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
319 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES BEFORE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING.
- DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE DAYTIME FRIDAY
WITH WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN THE
EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE FOR SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO 80S AND
LOW 90S AND CHANCES (UP TO 30%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, RADAR ECHOES FROM EARLIER RAIN CONTINUE TO FADE
AWAY AS LOW STRATUS ENVELOPES MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
SPORADIC FOG IS BEING OBSERVED WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA REPORTING LESS THAN 2SM VISIBILITIES. BELIEVE THIS
WILL EXPAND FURTHER EAST WITH TIME AS WINDS WEAKEN AS THEY VEER.
HREF SHOWS GENERALLY WEAK SIGNALS FOR FOG ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES WITH PROBABILITIES OF FALLING TO 1SM OR LESS LIMITED TO
AROUND 10%. THAT SAID, EVENING HRRR RUNS HAVE SHOWN FAIRLY
EXPANSIVE DENSE FOG IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR AREA CAMERAS AND OBSERVATIONS
CLOSELY.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE, SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL ADVECT RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN
SANDHILLS. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A NOTABLE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
FROM EAST TO WEST, EXTENDING UP TO A DRYLINE FEATURE THAT SHOULD
SETTLE AROUND THE HIGHWAY 71 CORRIDOR. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FORECAST
HIGHS WERE BUMPED TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS A RESULT. AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALOFT BENEATH A MOISTENING AIRMASS, MLCAPE
SHOULD APPROACH 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS OUR WEST WITHIN A
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS H5 FLOW NEARS 25-30 KNOTS. BY
AFTERNOON, CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THIS DRYLINE
TO THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
GIVEN THE MODEST H5 FLOW, STORM MOTIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
SLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY ACTIVITY OUT OF OUR WESTERN
ZONES UNTIL THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. AS THESE STORMS MOVE
EAST, THEY'LL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH
INCREASED CAPPING AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY. WHILE A LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL DEVELOP, IT SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NOT SERVE AS ANY SUPPORT FOR LOCAL ACTIVITY. WHILE SOME
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DECAYING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF HIGHWAY
61, WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH THE EXPECTED
LLJ DEVELOPMENT BENEATH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS
WERE BOOSTED TO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH HEIGHT FALLS BEGINNING TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THE DAYTIME. AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA, THE CONSTRICTING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DRIVE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
ALSO PROMOTE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FURTHER INCREASES IN DAYTIME
HIGHS. A RETURN TO 80S AND LOWER 90S IS PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA. BY
AFTERNOON, A SHARP DRYLINE WILL APPROACH OUR WESTERN ZONES AND WILL
BEAR WATCHING AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BWD WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH THE ONLY
UNCERTAINTY BEING ACTUAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-
LEVELS, PARTICULARLY AT H7, WILL APPROACH THE 13-16C RANGE. THESE
VALUES ARE NEAR THE MAXIMUM FOR THE RESPECTIVE DAY IN THE LBF SITE
RAOB CLIMATOLOGY. THIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP THAT WILL NEED
TO BE OVERCOME AND LIKELY SUGGESTS FEW IF ANY STORMS WILL MANAGE TO
DEVELOP. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL GOING FORWARD.
LATER IN THE DAY, DRY AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL WORK DOWN SLOPE AND ENCOMPASS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WITH MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS PERSISTING IN THE EAST AS VALUES RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO NEAR
70F.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM, AS
UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
ON SUNDAY TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE
LARGELY KEEPS THE AREA DRY, THOUGH MUCH LIKE SATURDAY THE
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOPMENT OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CORRIDOR
OF GREATEST CONCERN LOOKS TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LOW. THIS IS TIED TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT, WITH H7 TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 13-16C RANGE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE ALSO USHERS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, AND MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE AREA FINALLY LARGELY POST-FRONTAL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, ALONG WITH MUCH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AMID A BELT OF
STRONG H5 FLOW LAGGING THE SURFACE FRONT. ANY DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO
SUNRISE APPEARS MINIMAL AT BEST, THOUGH A STRONG H85 LOW LEVEL JET
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND CENTER OVER FAR NORTHERN KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THIS COULD INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
APPEARS POSSIBLE. THE MORE BULLISH ECMWF SUGGESTS A RATHER ROBUST
ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT, WITH SIGNIFICANT
MUCAPE (2500-3500J/KG) OVERLAPPING LCL-EL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OR 45-
55KTS. THIS IS NOT WIDELY SUPPORTED, THOUGH DOES SUGGEST AT LEAST
SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE
WANES AS WE HEAD INTO MIDDLE AND LATE WEEK WITH RESPECT TO A THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE SET TO RETURN. UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS LATE WEEK, WITH HEIGHTS
BEGINNING TO RISE LOCALLY AS THIS OCCURS. BROAD AND PERSISTENT WARM
ADVECTION WILL BOOST HIGHS EACH DAY LATE WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER
80S TO 90S RETURNING BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS ALSO LOOKS TO
BRING INCREASING HEAT INDICIES AS WE HEAD INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY
WEEKEND, WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO EVEN
LOWER 70S WITH LOTS OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DURING THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
INCREASING HEAT CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS PERSISTS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA TERMINALS, WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO
VFR ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30KTS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
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