266
FXUS63 KLBF 270450
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1150 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, NEAR
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
BRIEFLY SEVERE, WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
- TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES (UP TO 30%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE, AND CONTAIN LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THIS EVENING...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. A
FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE, WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS. AS THESE STORMS ATTEMPT TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AFTER
SUNSET, A STRONG CAP AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY WILL SEE STORMS
WEAKEN AND DECAY. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP, MAINTAINING A
BREEZY SOUTH WIND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
STRATUS WILL RETURN AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH A MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER, FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEARS VERY LIMITED. LOWS
TONIGHT NEAR 60.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN TO AS LOW AS 988MB ACROSS
FAR SERN WY AND NERN CO. THIS WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WIND 15 TO 30 MPH AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
70S NORTHEAST, TO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 FAR WESTERN ZONES. BY MID
AFTERNOON, A SHARP DRYLINE WILL APPROACH OUR WESTERN ZONES AND WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
STRONG INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES FROM 3000 TO OVER 4000 J/KG ARE
LIKELY ALONG WITH 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-
LEVELS, PARTICULARLY AT H7, WILL BE WARM, NEAR 14C. THIS SUGGESTS A
FAIRLY STRONG CAP TO LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS. THE
LATEST CAMS, DO INITIATE STORMS IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES BY 22Z WITH
AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT IN THE EVENING. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING. A MARGINAL RISK COVERS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SO WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED, ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE, WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY
DISCRETE STORMS, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
A STRONG WARMUP ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOW 90S, WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE
SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, AND UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DEEP
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 990MB WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST
CO. INTERESTINGLY, THE GFS HAS THE SURFACE LOW TO NEAR 982MB!
DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY, TEMPORARILY BRINGING
IN DRIER AIR AND LESS HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S. UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S, AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP WESTERN NEBRASKA IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. STORM DEVELOP WILL
BE FOCUSED IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO THE LOW 90S WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW TO MID
90S THURSDAY, AND MID TO UPPER 90S FRIDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND FRIDAY, INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND, THE UPPER
RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WITH LOCALIZED IFR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THESE MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
SUNRISE. ISOLATED, POTENTIALLY SEVERE, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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