217
FXUS63 KLBF 270827
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
327 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY, BUT LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD KEEP
ANY HEAT HEADLINES AT BAY.
- INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO INDEPENDENCE
DAY WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE CONCERN IN
THE VERY NEAR TERM. A DEEP AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN WY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SURFACE
LOW IS QUITE DEEP, WITH MOST MODELS SUGGESTING IT IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 990MB BY VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS IT WILL HELP BACK THE SURFACE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO
SE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE SHOULD
BE LOCATED FROM NEAR GOODLAND, KS TO ALLIANCE UP TO NEAR CHADRON.
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES REALLY RAMPING UP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP, AND ALONG WITH THE RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HEATING, SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 4000 TO 5000
J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. MOST HIGH-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CELLS NEAR THE DRYLINE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE, THERE IS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN
PLACE. IT APPEARS THOUGH THAT STRONG HEATING NEAR AND WEST OF THE
DRYLINE SHOULD ERODE THIS CAP AND ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BECOME A SUPERCELL AND QUICKLY
SEVERE AS THEY MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE INTO THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. SOUNDING PROFILES STRONGLY SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. ONCE
STORMS BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD EXPECT THEM TO
SURVIVE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-EVENING AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD
CENTRAL NE. LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES,
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.
ON SUNDAY THE WY SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO SD. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS OCCURS. DRIER AIR
SHOULD FILTER INTO THE AREA AS THIS OCCURS LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE RATHER HOT, WITH HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 90S. LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX READINGS
IN CHECK, HOWEVER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF SOUTHERN NEVADA TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR
NEAR DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES
LARGELY DRIVING THE AREAL EXTENT OF ANY STORMS. WITH FLOW REMAINING
STRONG ALOFT, A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY AS WELL. THE FIRST THREAT LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY
EVENING, THOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LENDS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM FORMATION LOCALLY. THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE DEEPER SURFACE MOISTURE EAST, AND WITH IT THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION INITIATION. SLOWER SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
SHOULD STORMS INITIATE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA.
MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED AS WE HEAD INTO
MIDWEEK TO HAVE MUCH CLARITY ON ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS,
AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
UPPER RIDGING THEN BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS LATE WEEK, WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE PLAINS
AS THIS OCCURS. A PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION REGIME ESTABLISHES LATE
WEEK AS WELL, BOOSTING HIGHS EACH DAY. WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S RETURN BY THURSDAY AND HIGHS MAY CHALLENGE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S BY FRIDAY AND INDEPENDENCE DAY. THIS WILL OVERLAP WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S, AND THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING HEAT INDICIES AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WITH LOTS OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
AREA, THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WITH LOCALIZED IFR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THESE MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
SUNRISE. ISOLATED, POTENTIALLY SEVERE, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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