682
FXUS63 KLBF 272327
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
627 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR MID WEEK AND INTO INDEPENDENCE
DAY WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BRING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEEPEN TO AS LOW AS 988MB FROM THE BLACK HILLS, SERN WY AND
NERN CO. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 30
MPH AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90
FAR WESTERN ZONES. BY LATE AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE WILL BE IN PLACE
NEAR OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES, FROM NEAR ALLIANCE, THROUGH OSHKOSH AND
HOLYOKE CO AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (0-3KM) WILL BE NEAR 9.5C/KM IN THIS VICINITY WITH
SBCAPES FROM 3000 TO OVER 4000 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG WITH 50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-LEVELS, PARTICULARLY AT H7, WILL BE WARM,
NEAR 14C. THIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF STORMS. A FEW OF THE CAMS INITIATE STORMS IN THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES AFTER 21Z WITH AN EAST NORTHEAST MOVEMENT IN THE
EVENING. THEREFORE, A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. MAINTAINED 20 TO
30 POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS FOR AREAS WEST OF
IMPERIAL THROUGH NORTH PLATTE AND AINSWORTH. SO WHILE COVERAGE WILL
BE VERY LIMITED, ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS. ANY
STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-EVENING, THEN WEAKEN AS THEY
APPROACH HIGHWAY 183. LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AS THE
LOW- LEVEL JET INCREASES, ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
A STRONG WARMUP ON SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 988MB ACROSS NORTHEAST CO.
INTERESTINGLY, THE GFS HAS THE SURFACE LOW TO NEAR 983MB! DRY
CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO NORTHEAST NE, AND ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT. A MARGINAL RISK IS FORECAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NE WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA,
WHERE THERE WILL BE A BETTER FOCUS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S, AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND KEEP
WESTERN NEBRASKA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EACH DAY. STORM DEVELOP
WILL BE FOCUSED DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT,AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY.
HIGHS 85 TO 90 TUESDAY SHOULD RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW 90S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER 90S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
LOOKING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND, THE
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS AN UPPER TROUGH STILL PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY, WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE ACTIVE CONVECTION NEAR KAIA AND IF
THESE STORMS AND RESULTING STORMS FROM LINGERING OUTFLOWS
APPROACH KVTN. DID ADD A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FOR
VALENTINE BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE, STRONG TO SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR SHOULD IMPACT ALL
WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA TERMINALS THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO WANE PRIOR TO DAWN WITH CLEARING
SKIES DURING THE DAYTIME.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...NMJ
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