276
FXUS63 KLBF 280706
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
206 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE AFTERNOON HIGHS.
- A FEW STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY,
FAVORING NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN A
PLUME OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF A MESO-LOW ARRIVING INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN CONVECTION WELL THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE FOCUS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND
EAST INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND LEAVE THE AREA DRY BY DAYBREAK.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING MESO-LOW,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM
INSOLATION AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DAY-OVER-DAY TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 80S TO POTENTIALLY
MIDDLE 90S IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DESPITE THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES, DEW POINTS SHOULD MIX OUT IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE 60S
AND KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW THE CENTURY MARK. AS ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES,
INCREASING CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL LIFT ANOTHER
WARM FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH
LINGERING HIGHER DEW POINTS ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER AND RESULT IN A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. CAM RUNS FROM LATE SATURDAY EVENING SHOW
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE PINE RIDGE QUICKLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST. DO BELIEVE A FEW STORMS IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ARE
POSSIBLE AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS (UP TO 30%) FOR THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY WITH SLIGHTLY DECREASED VALUES
FURTHER EAST ALONG HIGHWAY 20 INTO NORTHERN CHERRY COUNTY. THE
FORMER OF THESE VALUES GENERALLY ALIGNS WELL WITH THE LATEST SPC SWO
DAY 1 WHERE A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN
FURTHER NORTH WHERE A SLIGHT RISK IS IN PLACE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S WEST TO LOWER
70S EAST.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...DEEP TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SEPARATE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST AND A VERY
HUMID WARM SECTOR TO THE EAST. WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WILL NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND IF IT LEADS TO HAZARDOUS HEAT LEVELS. FOR
NOW, HEAT INDICES ARE ONLY PROGGED TO REACH THE MIDDLE 90S IN OUR
FAR EAST BUT VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS SUGGEST HIGHER MID-
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL GOING FORWARD. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL
SERVE AS ANOTHER SOURCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOME CAPPING ISSUES BUT AS A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
SETS UP, BELIEVE RICH THETA-E AIR WILL OVERRUN THIS LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARY AND LEAD TO LATE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHICH MAY PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY MORNING ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR FAR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. MU PARCELS ARE ROOTED AROUND 1-
2KM AGL AND SO THE MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL. THIS WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHILE MUCH OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA SHOULD SEE LOWS FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW
60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
TUESDAY...HEIGHTS SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE PARENT H5 LOW LIFTS UP INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
PROMOTE LEE TROUGHING AND STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
ADVECT UP ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. NBM PAINTS 30-50% POTENTIAL FOR EXCEEDING 0.10" QPF LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS ALIGNS WITH THE INHERITED 30-60%
POPS FROM THE MODEL BLEND STRETCHING FROM NEAR KSNY TO KOFK. WHILE
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE DOWNTREND, SUFFICIENT SHEAR
AND INSTABILTY SHOULD BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...PERSISTENT TROUGHING OUT WEST WILL PROLONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEYOND MIDWEEK. WITH THE
LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MODIFY THE LOCAL AIRMASS,
EXPECT HUMDID AFTERNOONS TO LEAD TO LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EXPECTING
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP EACH DAY BUT SHEAR WILL BE
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AND MAY HINDER THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS, SOME DAY-TO-DAY RISK APPEARS POSSIBLE BUT
SPECIFIC DETAILS MAY HINGE ON THE RESULT OF THE PREVIOUS DAY'S
ACTIVITY SO UNCERTAINTY WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGHER SIDE UNTIL WE GET
TO WITHIN 48 HOURS OF EACH RESPECTIVE DAY. MEDIAN DAYTIME HIGHS
SUGGEST A STEADY WARM UP FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND WITH HIGHER PERCENTILE OUTPUTS SUGGESTING SOME LOCATIONS
THREATENING TRIPLE DIGITS BY NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW, THE
DETERMINISTIC VALUES HUG CLOSER TO THE MEDIAN OUTPUT BUT WILL NEED
TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER
HEAT CONCERNS BY LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
SOME LOW CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA BEHIND THE STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ALL AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AND BECOME LIGHT ALL AREAS BY LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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