700
FXUS63 KLBF 291115
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
615 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, PRIMARILY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST NEARLY EACH DAY FOR
MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW FOR
NOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
CURRENTLY, ELEVATED SUPERCELLS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA, WITHIN A BROAD AND STRONG UPSLOPE REGIME ALOFT. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT A THREAT OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, MAINLY WEST OF HWY 61.
AFTER THESE STORMS MOVE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL END UNTIL AT LEAST LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 90S IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THIS IS DUE TO A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE, MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXACTLY WHERE
THIS BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO SUNSET, AND AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THIS WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE AREA TO THE EAST BY MID-
AFTERNOON, AND KEEP THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET.
THE TREAT FOR INCREASING FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED
THIS AFTERNOON, AS MUCH DRIER AIR IS USHERED INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL PUSH HUMIDITY AS LOW
AS THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S. WITH A DEEP SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SANDHILLS AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY
LATE AFTERNOON, AN INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AS WELL. THIS OVERLAP OF GUSTY WEST
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
THAT MISSED OUT ON RECENT BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHOULD
ANY STORMS FORM WITHIN THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME, STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND AMPLE MUCAPE SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
BROAD UPSLOPE POST-FRONTAL FLOW ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND THIS AGAIN COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
WITH YET ANOTHER STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT, THIS ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE AIDED AND
COULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINING IN PLACE, A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR NEAR DAILY THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO PERSIST
AS WE HEAD INTO MIDDLE AND LATE WEEK, AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND CONSEQUENTLY SOME THREAT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO LARGELY
REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL, WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD. THIS
WILL PROMOTE STRONG INSTABILITY NEAR DAILY, AND AGAIN SUPPORTS SOME
CONTINUED THREAT OF STRONG STORMS.
UPPER RIDGING THEN FINALLY BEGINS TO ESTABLISH BY LATE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND LEADS TO WEAKER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS MAY FINALLY BRING AT LEAST A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF THE NEAR
DAILY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR NOW.
THIS LOOKS TO ALSO KEEP THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE, AND
COULD BRING SOME THREAT OF INCREASING HEAT CONCERNS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
LOW STRATUS PERSISTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA, WITH LOW-END VFR AND MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING, AND VFR IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING,
AND THEN TO WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR TERMINALS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80, AS HIGH AS 25 TO 35KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
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