128
FXUS63 KLBF 300518
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1218 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, PRIMARILY
EAST OF A BROKEN BOW THROUGH O'NEILL LINE. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE NEAR AND NORTH OF A STALLED OUT SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED EARLY THIS EVENING FROM NEAR
KEARNEY THROUGH NORFOLK. THE LATEST CAMS SHOW STORMS INITIATING
AFTER 01Z, AS A LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND AMPLE MUCAPE SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BROKEN BOW THROUGH
O'NEILL.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING. HIGHS TO REACH 85 TO 90 AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY EVENING, LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH LATE EVENING. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS EARLY EVENING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH
A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, THIS WILL AID
IN SUSTAINING STORMS INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINING IN PLACE, A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS COVERED WITH A MARGINAL
RISK IF SEVERE STORMS, WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS
(SOUTH OF HAYES CENTER THROUGH MASON CITY).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S, AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND KEEP
WESTERN NEBRASKA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EACH DAY. WINDS ALOFT
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND CONSEQUENTLY
SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS
TO LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL, WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS
ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY.
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD
RETURN TO THE LOW 90S FRIDAY.
LOOKING INTO SATURDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY), SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. UPPER RIDGING RETURNS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY 85 TO 90 WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES CONTINUING. AFTER THESE STORMS EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
AT 10 TO 15KTS. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AT 5
TO 10KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BROWN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page