366
FXUS63 KLBF 300813
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE,
PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 61.
- A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST NEARLY EACH DAY INTO
LATE WEEK, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY PERSISTING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SHOULD QUICKLY END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND VEER OFF INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING RICHER
SURFACE MOISTURE BACK NORTHWESTWARD BY THIS EVENING, WITH LOW TO
MIDDLE 60 DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MUCH LIKE TODAY, IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST LATE EVENING, AND LIKELY UNTIL AFTER DARK
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS AIDED BY YET ANOTHER STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET, WHICH IS PROGGED TO CENTER OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS THIS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 9 TO 11 PM CDT. THE INITIAL STORM MODE LOOKS
TO BE SUPERCELLULAR, AND THESE STORMS LOOK TO POSE A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH EVENTUAL CLUSTERING AND UPSCALE GROWTH, AND THIS COULD LEAD TO
AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS EVENTUALLY EXIT
THE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH CONVECTION EVOLUTION FROM THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY CASTS
UNCERTAINTY ON THIS. A SURFACE TROUGH DOES LOOK TO BE POSITIONED
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PRESENT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS VARY
WIDELY ON IF AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION MAY FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY,
BUT ANY STORMS THAT FORM WOULD LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. LONG AND
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS DO SUGGEST UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION, AND A THREAT
FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WOULD
LIKELY POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, AND TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE THINKING AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK, WITH
AMPLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROVIDING ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION EACH DAY. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, SUGGESTING
SOME THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. EXACT MESOSCALE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN FOR NOW, AND THIS
WILL LARGELY DRIVE THE AREAL EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE THREAT.
UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO MIGRATE WESTWARD BY THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AND THIS FINALLY LEADS TO WEAKER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. THIS POINTS TOWARDS A MUCH NEEDED REPRIEVE
FROM SEVERE WEATHER THREATS, ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR INCREASING
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES CONTINUING. AFTER THESE STORMS EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
AT 10 TO 15KTS. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AT 5
TO 10KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
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