720
FXUS63 KLBF 301947
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
247 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
- A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY EARLY EVENING. DEWPOINTS RECOVER
INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 BY MID EVENING. A WARM FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY EVENING WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY LATE EVENING. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FROM EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS EARLY EVENING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT, THIS WILL
AID IN SUSTAINING STORMS INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINING IN PLACE, A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS COVERED
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LISCO
THROUGH VALENTINE LINE. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR FOCUS
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM OGALLALA THROUGH BASSETT,
WHILE THE 3KM NAM DEVELOPS A WIDER SWATH NORTH OF OGALLALA
THROUGH BARTLETT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUS AND TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS. WPC HAS
A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE SANDHILLS
TONIGHT. OTHER STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING, THOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS MORE
ISOLATED.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL AGAIN DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN
CO/WESTERN KS BY LATE WED. AFTN, THEN MORE INTO NCTRL KS/SCTRL
NE. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE. GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY ON IF AND HOW MUCH
CONVECTION MAY FORM. THE CAMS REMAIN VERY LIMITED ON
DEVELOPMENT, WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND POSE A THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN MCS IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MAY MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE
EVENING. THIS IS WHERE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS (SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NE). DAMAGING
WIND WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR
WEST AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NE, THOUGH COVERAGE
AND SEVERE THREAT IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. STORM
CHANCES ARE BEST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WHERE A WARM FRONT
IS FORECAST TO LOCATE NEAR THE NE/SD BORDER.
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOOKING INTO SATURDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY), THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS
FAIRLY ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER RIDGING
RETURNS TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WARM BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
TONIGHT, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SANDHILLS
AND THEN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH TIME. BRIEF
MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND
ISOLATED HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. AT KLBF. A
TEMPO 02Z-05Z P6SM- TSRA OVC090CB. LLWS ACROSS SWRN NE AFTER
05Z, WITH LLWS AT KLBF FROM 06Z UNTIL 10Z. AT KVTN, A TEMPO
06Z-10Z -TSRA OVC100CB.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY INTO THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT, TO 10KTS. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, AT LESS THAN 5KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...ROBERG
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