566
FXUS63 KLBF 010503
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1203 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 4TH OF
JULY. STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AND MAINLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS.
- STORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
AS A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS RATHER UNSETTLED WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THAT A MESO-HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS
CROSSING THE AREA RIGHT NOW. THIS SHOULD LARGELY KEEP MOST OF THE
DAY DRY. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN STRONGLY SHEARED, AND THERE
SHOULD BE SOME DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOST HI-RES MODELS DEVELOP AT
LEAST SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
WHERE STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE LOCATED. THESE TRACK
NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR INTO THE AREA THEY WILL TRACK, OR IF THE MORE
CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA. THURSDAY THE
OVERALL SHEAR IS A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE BUT STILL ADEQUATE.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG, WITH POCKETS OF 3000+ J/KG.
UNCERTAIN ON HOW CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE THURSDAY. ONE OF THE MORE
PROBABLE SCENARIOS MAY BE FOR CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THEN DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL THIS COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. APPEARS
THAT A DECENT WAVE WILL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW FRIDAY. VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, FAVORS
AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL LATER IN THE DAY. THIS MAY BE
LOCALLY ENHANCED WITH A WARM FRONT ANCHORED ACROSS THE AREA AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ANOTHER WAVE
IMPACTS THE AREA ON THE 4TH OF JULY, WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BY
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK, RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE
AREA WITH THE THREAT FOR STORMS DIMINISHING AS THE OVERALL FLOW
ALOFT WEAKENS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SCATTERED
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THEN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS MORNING, WINDS THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...TAYLOR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page