931
FXUS63 KLBF 012008
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
308 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT (LEVEL 1 OF 5).
- SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
WITH THE MAIN THREAT GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GREATEST THREAT IS SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CHANCES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
H5 PATTERN THIS MORNING REMAINED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE
CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH INTO EASTERN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN QUEBEC. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER WESTERN NUNAVUT AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA. SOUTHWEST, A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA,
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH,
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS,
NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITHIN
THIS FLOW, WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED THIS MORNING. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, THESE SHORTWAVES WERE LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, CENTRAL KANSAS AND NW TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON...WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH OF
THIS FEATURE INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO. EAST OF THE LOW
PRESSURE, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED INTO THE EASTERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE BEFORE MENTIONED FRONTS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTH SOUTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WERE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER, THEY WERE BREEZY OVER KANSAS. SKIES WERE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SANDHILLS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM CDT RANGED FROM 80 DEGREES AT AINSWORTH
AND BROKEN BOW TO 85 DEGREES AT OGALLALA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MID LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TWO AREAS OF CONCERN FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ANCHORED THIS EVENING FROM SOUTHWESTERN
INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. SOME OF THE CAMS FROM THIS MORNING
DEVELOP AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE EASTERN
SANDHILLS DURING THE 22Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS, MOST NOTABLY THE HRRR,
REMAINS INCONSISTENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY INITIALIZING CONVECTION
ONE RUN, ONLY TO NOT INITIALIZE STORMS WITH ITS SUBSEQUENT RUN.
NO DOUBT, ONGOING STRATOCU OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA MIDDAY MAY
INHIBIT CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS. WILL INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED
POPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH MID EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS THREAT, HOWEVER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. IF A
STORM WERE TO INITIATE, IT HAS A GOOD POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE
LIMITS. AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KTS WILL LEAD TO SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS. SB CAPES REACH 3000 TO 4000 J/KG AND DOWN DRAFT
CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG INVOF THE FRONT AFTER 21Z. THIS SETUP
WOULD FAVOR STRONG WINDS WITH A SECONDARY THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
LATER THIS EVENING CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AIDED BY A
LOW LEVEL JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, ACTIVITY TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GREATER
WITH THIS AREA OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS, AS THE LATEST NAM12,
GFS AND MOST OF THE CAMS ALL AGREE ON THIS AREA OF STORMS
OVERNIGHT. AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT, DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER
ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS TONIGHT AND GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY, STORMS
SHOULD NOT BE SURFACE BASED. THAT BEING SAID, GIVEN THE DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA, WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF A 50+ MPH WIND GUST OCCURRED WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. BY THURSDAY
MORNING, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. EAST OF THE LOW, A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
BECOME ORIENTED INVOF THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST INITIALLY, WITH A
EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVERNIGHT INTO A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MCS TRACKS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. FURTHER SOUTH, THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM FAR SW
NEBRASKA SOUTH INTO KANSAS ALONG A BULGING DRYLINE. MID LEVEL
WINDS WOULD CARRY THIS ACTIVITY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SW
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING. THAT BEING SAID, HAVE
POSITIONED POPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN ANTICIPATION OF A
MCS EVENTUALLY IMPACTING THE FA FROM THE NORTH, AND FROM SW
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO PICK UP ANY STORMS WHICH
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTH
ACTIVITY IS LOWER, AND WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE RANGE. AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT, STRONG
WINDS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A
COMBINATION OF WIND/HAIL WITH THE SOUTHERN ACTIVITY. FINALLY, A
DISCLAIMER: THE TRACK OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WILL BE CONTINGENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS FEATURE ENDS UP FURTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE DECREASED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. IF THE FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH, WE COULD SEE SOME
DECENT RAINFALL IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE
SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON FRONTAL LOCATION WHEN TONIGHT'S
EXPECTED CONVECTION CEASES AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECASTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL STARTING FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY (SATURDAY). AN UPPER WAVE
EMBEBBED IN THE OVERALL FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME
ANCHORED ALONG CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEBRASKA DURING THIS TIME TO
PROMOTE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT HOUSES AN ALREADY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS, AND A
HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 3000 TO
4000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 30 - 40 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR IN ALONG NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT OVER EXACT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE GFS/NAM
KEEPING INTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SD/NE BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF
AND RRFS PUSHING THAT DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH INTO MORE OF CENTRAL
TO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST PACKAGES.
CONTINUING INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY, ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL REMAINS (MUCAPE RANGING 2000 TO
4000 J/KG) OVER MUCH OF NEBRASKA. WHILE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, THERE IS SOME SIGNAL AMONG THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE APPEARS TO BE AT
LEAST A SHORT REPRIEVE FROM SEVERE WEATHER HEADLINES. AN UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRE CONCERNS SHOULD BE
LIMITED DUE TO MARGINAL HUMDITIES (GENERALLY 30 - 50%) FROM THE
ONGOING GULF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED UPWARD. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED HEAT STRESS CONCERNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
EXPECT SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AROUND 2500
FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KLBF TO KANW THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL THEN BURN OFF WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 25000 EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A MINOR THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, GIVEN
EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE AND MODEL UNCERTAINITY, WILL FORGO
MENTION OF TSRA'S IN THIS 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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