521
FXUS63 KLBF 231207
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
707 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S.
- THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH A SECONDARY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING OR REACHING 100+ DEGREES.
READINGS COOL OFF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SEASONAL HIGHS IN
THE 90S AND A SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAD A CLOSED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. A TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THIS
FEATURE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS
ANCHORED ALONG THE RED RIVER WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO
IDAHO AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED
FROM SOUTHWESTERN CANADA INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WITHIN THIS FLOW, WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE PRESENT FROM IDAHO INTO
WYOMING AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS LED TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLIER THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. AS OF 1130 PM CDT, THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AN ARC EXTENDING FROM NEAR LEWELLEN TO WEST OF HAYES
CENTER. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE FORMING ON THE NOSE OF A 25 TO 35
KT LOW LEVEL JET AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST NAM12 SOLN. THE LATEST
CAMS, INCLUDING THE 03Z HRRR DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
PRECIPITATION AND DEVELOP IT AROUND 50 TO 75 MILES FARTHER EAST THAN
WHAT IS OCCURRING. THAT BEING SAID, MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATION TO
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. BY DAYBREAK, ONGOING PRECIPITATION, IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
EAST, EXITING SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA
BY DAYBREAK. TWO AREAS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE OVER A) NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND B) OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE, MENTIONED OVER
IDAHO ABOVE, WILL TRAVERSE WYOMING TODAY, APPROACHING EASTERN
WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE, A
ELONGATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE, EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO EASTERN COLORADO WILL HELP TO FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TWO
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE ANTICIPATED. THE FIRST OVER
NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INVOF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE SECOND OVER
NORTHEASTERN INTO EASTERN COLORADO ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CO-
LOCATED WITH AN AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH WILL TRANSITION EAST SOUTHEAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FURTHER SOUTH, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE COLORADO INITIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL WINDS TRANSITION MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
LATER TODAY WHICH WOULD STEER THIS ACTIVITY MORE INTO KANSAS AND FAR
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS SHOWS UP IN THE LATEST QPF FORECAST WHICH IS
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR NORTH PLATE AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING.
THAT BEING SAID, WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80
WITH THIS SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION EAST OVERNIGHT, EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY MORNING. ON THE HEELS OF THIS EXITING PRECIPITATION, RIDGING
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, FORCING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWER 80S IN THE
EASTERN SANDHILLS AND MIDDLE 90S ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THESE
READINGS WILL SEEM COOL COMPARED TO HIGHS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. MORE ABOUT THAT IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER COLORADO. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE AS HIGH AS 34 TO
38C EACH DAY. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. NBM PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES IS HIGHEST ON SUNDAY FROM 70 TO 95 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL, THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST.
EVEN SATURDAY HAS PROBABILITIES AS HIGH AS 40 TO 70 PERCENT.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXCEEDING 100 DEGREE IS LESS ON MONDAY, A
WEAK COLD MAY DROP INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BRING
THE HOTTEST DAY IF THE FRONT SLOWS AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING BOOSTS
HIGHS. MEX GUIDANCE IS HOT ALL 3 DAYS, AT 108, 110, 108 EACH DAY AT
VALENTINE AND 106, 109, 110 EACH DAY AT NORTH PLATTE. WHILE WE MAY
NOT SEE HIGHS QUITE THIS HOT, THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HIGHS TO
REACH OR EXCEED 105 IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS DURING PEAK HEATING
LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH HEAT INDICIES AT
LEAST IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. SUNDAY MAY SEE HEAT INDICES 100
TO 105. SO, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAN HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGHS MAY LOWER A BIT TUESDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S, AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. LOW TO MID 90S ALSO
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. H7 TEMPERATURES
AROUND 18 TO AROUND 20C SATURDAY WARM TO AROUND 20C SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
A SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SUPPORT "RIDGE RUNNER
CONVECTION" INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 707 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM. STRATUS, POSSIBLY
IFR WILL DEVELOP IN CENTRAL NE AND MAY MOVE INTO THE KLBF
TERMINAL AFTER 09Z.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...ROBERG
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