886
FXUS63 KLBF 232326
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
626 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER TONIGHT'S RAIN CHANCE, HOT WEATHER SETS IN AGAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND. SUNDAY COULD BE EXCESSIVELY HOT.
- A BIT COOLER AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 90S AND
AN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
ECMWF ENS PWATS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE WITH AROUND 1.6" AREA WIDE. THIS
IS WELL ABOVE THE THE 90TH %TILE AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND THEN TURNING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CENTERED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. ONE MORE DISTURBANCE WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD THIS EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MORE
SCATTERED, AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH COVERAGE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
183, WHERE COVERAGE COULD BE A LITTLE GREATER. AFTER TONIGHT, THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK NORTHWARD, ESSENTIALLY
PUTTING AND END TO RAIN CHANCES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE
TO WARM AGAIN FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO HOT
TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE EXCEPTIONALLY
HOT. LREF/ENSEMBLE MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE WELL OVER 100
DEGREES AND EXCESSIVE HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. MONDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK HOT, BUT BY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE
RIDGE SINKS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A RETURN OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH.
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN HIGH AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES ROTATE NORTH AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS SETTLING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
LOW END VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS, AS STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CEILINGS REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT,
INTRODUCING MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS, WITH GREATEST CERTAINTY IN LIFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS CEILINGS REMAIN
LOW AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP,
INTRODUCING VISIBILITY CONCERNS IN ADDITION TO LOW CEILINGS.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING, AS FOG AND LOW
STRATUS BEGINS TO BURN OFF. THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD,
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...RICHIE
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