850
FXUS63 KLBF 240622
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
122 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. HEAT INDICES GREATER THAN 100
DEGREES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH LITTLE
OVERNIGHT RELIEF. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION.
- WITH HOT, DRY, AND GUSTY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO MID-WEEK, ALONG WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TUE. THROUGH THU.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST,
CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LARGELY CONTROL
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TODAY, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK INTO THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE, KEEPING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FORECAST REGION. TO THE EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY, EXPECT MOSTLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. ALONG AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY, SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED, SUPPORTING WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY IN
THE MID 90S ALONG AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE GREATEST BULK OF
THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY
61 CORRIDOR, THOUGH SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD BE SEEN EAST OF
THE BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH IN CHERRY COUNTY. OTHERWISE,
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, LASTING OVERNIGHT.
NIGHT TIME LOWS REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO MID 60S.
SATURDAY, A STRONGER PUSH OF SOUTHERLY ADVECTION ALOFT WILL HELP TO
LIFT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OUT OF THE REGION, BRINGING A WAVE OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BEGINS TO USHER IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ROUGHLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH SATURDAY
BEING THE ONSET OF THE EXPECTED HEAT WAVE, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S, WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS PUSHING JUST ABOVE
100 DEGREES. WITH THESE HIGHS, EXPECTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES AROUND 100 TO 103 THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. LITTLE RELIEF IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS MOSTLY
REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN THESE HEAT INDICES AND LITTLE
OVERNIGHT RELIEF, HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE EVEN WARMER THAN LAST WEEKEND'S
HEAT WAVE, SO THOSE SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT WILL WANT TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS THIS WEEKEND. SOMETHING ELSE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE
LOWERING HUMIDITY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE. STRONG MIXING MAY CREATE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS,
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH, WHICH MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, SHOULD HUMIDITY CONTINUE TO TREND
LOWER.
THE HEAT CONTINUES TO BUILD IN EARNEST SUNDAY, WHICH IS WHEN THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK 100 ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, WITH SWELTERING
HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, AND SOME
LOCATIONS EVEN PUSHING HEAT INDICES OF 107 TO 109. THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THIS IS MOSTLY JUST EXPECTED TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. GUSTS OF 30 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR.
WILL ALSO NOTICE SOME LOWERING HUMIDITY WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61 AND AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE
SWELTERING HEAT, COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY MAY
INTRODUCE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. BY THE EVENING, VERY LITTLE RELIEF IS EXPECTED, WITH
LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
THE WARMEST LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES REMAINING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
WILL AGAIN SEE A RAPID WARM UP ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGHS
AGAIN PUSH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S, WITH HEAT INDICES AT OR
ABOVE 100 ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, RELIEF MAY
BE IN SIGHT AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STILL
RESOLVING TIMING OF THIS FRONT, HOWEVER, EXPECTING A FRONTAL PUSH
SOME TIME MONDAY EVENING OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WORTH
MENTIONING THAT THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC ON THIS BEING A
WETTING RAIN, AS THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD CONSENSUS OF A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT RAIN AMOUNTS EXCEED ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FORECAST TRENDS AS
THIS MAY PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE STRONGER HEAT WAVE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS, WITH WARMER, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY,
KEEPING CRITERIA BELOW ANY HEAT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME, WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INCLUDING KLBF TERMINAL.LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOW CIGS AND LOW VISIBILITY. FOR AREAS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING
WITH LOWER CIGS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD, AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH
THE DAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ SATURDAY TO 10 PM CDT
/9 PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-
069>071-094.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...GOMEZ
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