470
FXUS63 KLBF 242034
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
334 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO MID 100S. HEAT INDICES GREATER THAN 100
DEGREES EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH LITTLE OVERNIGHT
RELIEF. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AREAS WEST OF HWY 83.
- NEAR DAILY ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY BUT LITTLE TO NO MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER MOST OF WESTERN
CONUS, CREATING HOTTER, DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PEAK OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS COOLING DOWN NEAR THE DEWPOINT TO THE LOW TO
MID 60S AND CALM WINDS AT THE SURFACE, THIS WILL CREATE AT LEAST
SOME PATCHY FOG CONCERNS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HREF AND HRR
BOTH ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND POTENTIALLY CREEPING JUST BEYOND
NORTH PLATTE PROPER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.
THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING
DISSIPATES IT.
THE BIG THEME HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS ANOMALOUS HEAT
CONCERNS. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG GUIDANCE (MINUS THE ECMWF)
PLACES DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO LOW/MID 100S AND
LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HEIGHTENED HEAT CONCERNS, A HEAT
ADVISORY BLANKETING THE WHOLE CWA WAS ISSUED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
HEAT INDEX COULD RISE AS HIGH AS 105 SATURDAY AND MONDAY WITH
SOME LOCALIZED AREAS REACHING 107 - 110 ON SUNDAY. AS MENTIONED
WITH THE HIGH HEAT INDEXES SUNDAY, THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE A DAY
THAT COULD BECOME A PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE CRITERIA FOR AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING ACROSS COUNTIES ALONG
AND EAST OF HWY 83. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED AS
WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND BUT REGARDLESS, IT IS IMPORTANT TO TAKE
NECESSARY MEASURES FOR PROTECTING FOLKS WHO ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
HEAT AND EVEN REGULAR FOLKS WHO ARE OUTSIDE FOR ANY EXTENDED
AMOUNT OF TIME, SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO THE SWELTERING HEAT, THE STRONG RIDGING WILL BRING
ABOUT ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DRY
OUT THE AIR BELOW, BRINGING HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOW 20S GENERALLY WEST OF HWY 83. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH
GUSTS BEING MOSTLY IN THE 25 - 30 MPH RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND
SLIGHTLY TRENDING DOWNWARD MONDAY TO 20 - 25 MPH.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN QUITE LOW THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND BUT
SOME CAMS ARE PICKING UP ON A SIGNAL FOR SOME WEAK CONVECTION OVER
FAR NORTHERN NE ALONG THE SD BORDER LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
LINES UP WITH A SMALL SHORTWAVE WIGGLE ADVECTING SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AROUND THE LARGER RIDGE. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP, IT
WILL LIKELY BE HIGH BASED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V
PROFILES. AS SUCH, VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES, NOTING DCAPE VALUES BEING IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE. MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER DAY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. SOME ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD MUCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1000 - 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
TRACKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD INITIATE SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER IN THE EVENING MONDAY BUT
GUIDANCE IS NOT TO OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION
FALLING, WITH A CONSENSUS OF 20 - 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF GREATER
THAN A TENTH AN INCH FALLING ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY, UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
CONUS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S (ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL) HEADING INTO THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE STILL
BEING FAIRLY HOT, WITH AID FROM THE COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD ARRIVE
EARLIER IN THE WEEK, THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR REGION BELOW FURTHER HEAT
CRITERIA. FIRE CONCERNS SHOULD BE KEPT ON THE MARGINAL END WITH
HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO THE MID 30S AND WIND GUSTS LARGELY
REMAINING BELOW 25 MPH. NEAR DAILY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WHERE A COUPLE DISTURBANCES ARE
FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE ERODING FROM THE WEST AND SKC SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT,
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ SATURDAY TO 10 PM CDT
/9 PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-
069>071-094.
SHORT TERM...MRS
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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