021
FXUS63 KLBF 251151
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
651 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE SETS IN TODAY, LASTING THROUGH MONDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, PROVIDING LITTLE OVERNIGHT RELIEF.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF HOT, DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DAILY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH WILL LARGELY
DRIVE THE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A SURGE OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN EARNEST THIS MORNING,
SUPPORTING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. AS SUCH, HEAT
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION, WITH MORE DETAIL
BELOW.
BEFORE THE HEAT BEGINS IN EARNEST, PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AND
LINGERING A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
PREVALENT ALONG AREA RIVER VALLEYS AND LOWER LYING REGIONS, WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE POOLS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, EXPECTING A FAIRLY QUICK
BURN OFF AS THE SUN RISES AND BEGINS TO BURN OFF THE FOG.
AS THE FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING, EXPECTING A SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT, BRINGING ANOMALOUS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THIS WILL KICK OFF WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND, WITH DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
TODAY, THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN THE UPGRADE TO AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
UNDER THIS EXTREME HEAT WARNING, EXPECTING THAT HEAT INDICES TODAY
AND TOMORROW WILL EXCEED 105 DEGREES, WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST
OF THE TWO DAYS. WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING GOES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO COOL
AROUND 75 DEGREES, OFFERING LITTLE OVERNIGHT RELIEF BOTH NIGHTS.
OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING AREA, A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT, COVERING
THE REST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY AROUND
100, BUT REMAINING UNDER 105. EVEN THOUGH THIS AREA IS "ONLY"
COVERED BY AN ADVISORY, WORTH POINTING OUT THAT HEAT WILL STILL BE
STIFLING, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO COOL INTO
THE LOW 70S OFFERING LITTLE RELIEF.
ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT LATE AFTERNOON TO THE EVENING, THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, FORCING
REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK AND ANY STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY HIGH
BASED. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE CONCERN, BUT ALSO WILL LIMIT ANY
RAIN CHANCES, AS PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING THROUGH A VERY DRY
LOW LAYER IN THE ENVIRONMENT.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST OF THE NEXT 3 DAYS, WITH HIGHS
EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
61, HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 101 TO 104 ARE EXPECTED, WHICH WILL
ACTUALLY BE THE "COOLER" VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALONG AND EAST
OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR AND POTENTIALLY INCLUDING LAKE
MCCONAUGHY, THE HEAT WILL FEEL QUITE OPPRESSIVE, WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES CLIMBING BETWEEN 106 TO 112 DEGREES. WHILE THIS EXTREME LEVEL
OF HEAT WOULD TYPICALLY PUSH INTO THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING LEVEL,
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THESE HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ONLY
WIDELY ACHIEVED ON SUNDAY, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXCEEDING 105 ON MONDAY. WITH THAT IN MIND, HAVE KEPT THE HEAT
ADVISORY AS IS. HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH STRESSING THAT THIS WILL FEEL
FAR HOTTER THAN LAST WEEKEND'S HEAT ADVISORY. THOSE SENSITIVE TO THE
HEAT AND THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS WILL NEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS, AND
SHOULD TRY TO LIMIT TIME OUT IN THE HEAT. OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT, WITH LOWS GENERALLY ONLY COOLING INTO THE LOWER
70S, AND AGAIN OFFERING LITTLE RELIEF.
NOW, WITH ALL THE HEAT AND FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION,
THIS WILL BRING CONCERN FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61, WHERE LOWEST
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE HEAT, EXPECTING STRONG
MIXING ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 20
MPH. ADDITIONALLY, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH NIGHTS THIS WEEKEND, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AR EXPECTED TO
BE VERY HIGH BASED, WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION MAKING
IT TO THE SURFACE. THIS MAY INTRODUCE A DRY LIGHTNING THREAT.
HOWEVER, WITH MINIMAL FORCING, STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, AND LIKELY SHORT LIVED. STILL, THE
THREAT WILL EXIST, SO WILL BE KEEPING A VERY CLOSE EYE ON ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS.
MONDAY, THE HEAT CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S, AND HEAT INDICES CLIMBING
AGAIN AROUND 100 DEGREES. HOWEVER, SOME RELIEF MAY BE ON THE
HORIZON, AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WHILE THIS WON'T BRING A STRONG
COOL OFF, AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING
BACK INTO THE 60S OFFERING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS MAY ALSO
BE THE CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES AGAIN REMAIN FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC, WITH THE GEFS
INDICATING A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH, AND THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES SHOWING A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE SAME. HOWEVER, ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE EUROPEAN
REMAINS COOLER, WHICH MAY FAVOR ITS HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IN
REGARD TO THE HEAT ADVISORY, THOUGH THE FRONT BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, SO HAVE KEPT THE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE WEEK. HOWEVER, A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG ACROSS
THE RIDGE, THE FIRST OF WHICH BEING A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING REPRIEVE TO THE EXTREME HEAT, ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AT THIS TIME SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ANY HEAT HEADLINE CRITERIA. THERE WILL ALSO BE CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE RIDGE, BUT ANY ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME, SO NO WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCE, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES NONETHELESS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. AS FAR AS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM,
EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE AREA KEEPING MIN
RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT OR HIGHER MID-WEEK TO THE END OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN SANDHILLS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA, INCLUDING KLBF AND
KBBW TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN SANDHILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON EXACTLY WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP,
BUT GREATER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH
AND WEST OF KVTN TERMINAL, SO HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 10 PM CDT /9
PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR NEZ004-005-008-009-022>028-035>038-056>059-
069>071-094.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
NEZ006-007-010-029.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ038-059-
071.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...GOMEZ
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