866
FXUS63 KLBF 260645
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
145 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE CONTINUES TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH
TODAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 105, PUSHING TO 110 OR GREATER ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN
TODAY, AS THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. GUSTY CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, AND CANNOT RULE OUT A DRY LIGHTNING THREAT
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
- SOME STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
- NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE, KEEPING ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNDER A DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE TODAY INTO
TOMORROW. IN FACT, TODAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE HEAT WAVE,
AS HIGHS CLIMB OVER 100 ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE
AMBIENT HEAT, RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION,
PUSHING HEAT INDICES EVEN HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 105 DEGREES,
WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 110 DEGREES OR
GREATER. THIS IS UNUSUALLY HOT, EVEN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH HOW
HEAT INDICES PERFORMED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, THE DECISION WAS MADE TO
EXPAND THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. TO
THE WEST, THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT, AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 105, AND MAY EVEN POTENTIALLY
BRIEFLY GET WARMER. AGAIN WORTH STRESSING THAT THIS IS UNUSUALLY
HOT, EVEN FOR LATE JULY. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS NEED TO TAKE THIS
DANGEROUS HEAT INTO ACCOUNT WITH ANY PLANS. IF POSSIBLE, TRY TO STAY
INSIDE AND STAY COOL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY IF YOU
ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL PROVIDE LITTLE
RELIEF, AS LOWS ONLY COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
ALONG WITH THE HEAT, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY DRY,
WITH LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61. STRONG MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT GUSTY
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GIVEN HOW HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN, GREAT CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH ANY
SOURCES OF SPARKS OR FLAMES.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS WELL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH VERY DRY
LOWER LAYERS AND ABNORMALLY HIGH DCAPE VALUES. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
STRONG WIND GUST THREAT WITH ANY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH THIS THREAT, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WITH A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) EXTENDING BACK TO THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR. RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK RATHER SPARSE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
HOW DRY THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE. THIS MAY ALSO
INTRODUCE A THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS, WOULD INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME RELIEF MAY FINALLY ARRIVE BY MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH HIGHS AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
LOWER 100S. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER, GENERALLY
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S, WITH GREATEST CONCERN FOR
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 (OR POTENTIALLY GREATER) ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE FRONT ALSO BRINGS BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BRING THE RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND STILL HIGHER DCAPE VALUES ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE MAY ALSO INCREASE SOME
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. OVERNIGHT, SOME RELIEF FINALLY BUILDS IN,
AS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. TO THE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83, LOWS MAY STILL ONLY FALL INTO
THE LOWER 70S. WHILE THIS IS NOT AS STRONG OF AN OVERNIGHT COOLING,
THIS SHOULD STILL GENERALLY FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, SO EXPECT
THAT HEADLINES WILL REMAIN ON TRACK TO EXPIRE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADES WEST, LEAVING THE HIGH
PLAINS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW MID WEEK TO THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH
THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SEE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, AS ANY
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SETUP IS LOW. THE RIDGE BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED FRIDAY WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH
ON FRIDAY. AS FAR AS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM,
EXPECT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO REMAIN LOW, DESPITE THE WARM
TEMPERATURES, AS INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP MIN RH
VALUES AT 30 PERCENT OR HIGHER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LLWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS
INCLUDING KVTN TERMINAL WITH 40 KTS WINDS EXPECTED JUST OFF THE
SFC TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN
SWITCH TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS, AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR NEZ004-
022>024-035-036-056>058-069-070-094.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ005>010-
025>029-037-038-059-071.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ005-008-009-
025>028-037-038-059-071.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...GOMEZ
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