120
FXUS63 KLBF 270553
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1253 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT PERSISTS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES EACH DAY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND MONDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE EACH DAY, WITH A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83, WHERE LINGERING HIGH
HUMIDITY IS PUSHING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO AS HIGH AS 110-115F.
FURTHER WEST, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTS THE SANDHILLS. BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY, DRIER AIR HAS KEPT HEAT INDEX VALUES SLIGHTLY LOWER,
THOUGH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE 100-105 RANGE ARE KEEPING CONDITIONS
DANGEROUS FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
THE VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH
LIMITED RELIEF AGAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT ONLY FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S TONIGHT, LEADING INTO YET ANOTHER HOT DAY
MONDAY. H85 TEMPERATURES REMAIN ~30-32C ALOFT, AND THOUGH COOLER
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS, SHOULD STILL PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100F. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES TOMORROW, THOUGH GIVEN THE
STRUGGLE TO SCOUR OUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE YESTERDAY AND TODAY,
THIS CASTS SOME DOUBT ON HOW MUCH. SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE
INHERITED HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR TOMORROW, AND ANOTHER
DANGEROUSLY HOT DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE.
THE OTHER CONCERN BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY,
WILL BE MONITORING THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT POSITIONED NEAR THE HWY 83
CORRIDOR FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING INTO THE LOWER 100S NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY,
BELIEVE ANY LINGERING CIN SHOULD LARGELY BE ERODED BY LATE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH TO LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING, MAINLY
NEAR AND EAST OF HWY 83. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF ~30-
35KTS, AT LEAST SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED WITH STORMS
THAT FORM, WITH A CLUSTER/MARGINAL SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH STORMS FORMING WITHIN
THE WELL MIXED AND HIGH DCAPE ENVIRONMENT. ANY HAIL THREAT IS MUCH
LESS CERTAIN, WITH VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND UNCERTAINTY IN
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODES.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST, MOVING INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH TIME. AGAIN, MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER POINTS TO THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
SOME HEAT RELIEF FINALLY ARRIVES TUESDAY, AS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ARE USHERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL RETURN HIGHS BACK TO
THE LOWER 90S, AND PRECLUDE ANY HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
SOME THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THESE STORMS REMAINS LOW
FOR NOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
WEDNESDAY, A STRONG 594-DAM 500-MB UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO LOWER 100S. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE,
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE PANHANDLE BEFORE MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, WHICH IS A TYPICAL EVOLUTION IN THIS PATTERN. AT THIS TIME,
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW AS THE STRONGEST MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL
ROUND OF CONVECTION, AS STORMS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SCATTERED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD, GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
THURSDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND
597 DAM WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL ESTABLISH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
TRANSITIONING THE REGION INTO A CLASSIC RING OF FIRE PATTERN. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN OWING TO DIFFERENCES IN
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AMONG THE GUIDANCE, THOUGH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S CURRENTLY APPEAR REASONABLE. BY THURSDAY
EVENING, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT REMAINS
LOW. FORECAST TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE
AGAIN REMAIN MILD, GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
PERSIST AS OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW, THOUGH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT AND SYNOPTIC WINDS STAYING
RELATIVELY LIGHT. OVERALL, THE PATTERN FAVORS WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
PERIODIC, MAINLY LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHILE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING BREEZY IN
THE MORNING OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EVENING, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT IMPACTING EITHER OF THE FORECAST TERMINAL
SITES REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004-022>024-035-036-056>058-069-070-094.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ005>010-025>029-037-038-059-071.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ005>010-025>029-037-038-059-071.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...LABENZ
AVIATION...GOMEZ
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