689
FXUS63 KLBF 271738
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1238 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE DAY OF HEAT IS EXPECTED, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMBING BETWEEN 100 TO 105 ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY. A
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING MAY FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT WAVE.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT IS IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TODAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS HOT
AS YESTERDAY. LOWS OVERNIGHT REMAIN WARM, WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WITH THESE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT,
WILL KEEP THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING GOING THROUGH THE MORNING,
ESPECIALLY WHERE LOWS REMAIN AROUND 75 DEGREES PROVIDING LITTLE
OVERNIGHT RELIEF. THE WARM PERIOD OVERNIGHT WILL HELP SET THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY.
THOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION, AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, WHICH MAY FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT BY THE EVENING. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS
LITTLE COOLING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
RELIEF COMING OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF
THIS COLD FRONT, THOUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL GOING TO GET QUITE
WARM. HIGHS AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S, WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES CLIMBING AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOLER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA, LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE ARRIVING FRONT AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONE NOTABLE CHANGE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DEWPOINTS FURTHER TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHER HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY
BACK ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THOUGH THE
COLD FRONT SHOWS A WEAK THERMAL GRADIENT, AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION, IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW ADVISORY
CONDITIONS, SO PLAN TO EXPIRE THE ADVISORY ON TIME IN THE EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS, THOUGH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SUGGEST BUILDING OF INSTABILITY ALOFT AND DRY LOW
LAYERS IN THE ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH BASED CONVECTION
AND ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG, GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MOISTURE ALOFT, STORMS MAY ALSO PROVIDE A DECENT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING
A REPRIEVE TO THE DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE HOT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES, WITH SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS
WELL, KEEPING HEAT INDICIES BELOW ANY HEAT HEADLINE CRITERIA.
THE "COOLER" TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES FOCUSED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,
KEEPING THE HIGH PLAINS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE THE "COOLEST" DAYS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH HIGHS
MODERATING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING DAILY
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED AND COVERAGE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH NO
ORGANIZED, WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. AS FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK, THEY WILL REMAIN LOW DESPITE THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP MIN RH
VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT OR GREATER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, LEADING TO
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS. ANY LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AT 10 TO
15KTS. WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, AT 5KTS
OR LESS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ005>010-023>029-035>038-057>059-069>071-094.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...BROWN
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