562
FXUS63 KLBF 272016
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT PERSISTS INTO THIS EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 61. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S INTO MIDWEEK.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
- A THREAT FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH A COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND HIGH HUMIDITY.
THIS HAS PUSHED HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100F FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF HWY 61. FURTHER WEST, PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER.
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE HEAT ADVISORY WEST OF HWY 61 WITH THIS IN
MIND. THE DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
EAST OF HWY 61, AND THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10
PM CDT.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE A THREAT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION REMAINS LOW, WITH A FEW DIFFERENT POTENTIAL MECHANISMS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THE FIRST IS WITHIN A BROAD UPSLOPE
REGIME WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INITIATED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLACK HILLS.
THESE STORMS COULD POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE
EAST WITH TIME, AND COULD IMPACT AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF HWY 20
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE WEATHER QUICKLY
WANES SOUTH OF HWY 20 AND NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 61 FOR NOW, AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS HAVE LIMITED
INSTABILITY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INITIATED
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS, IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS COULD ALSO
POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH TIME. RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOME THREAT FOR OUTFLOW FROM BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN THUNDERSTORM REGIMES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TONIGHT,
AND COULD BRING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHEREVER
THEY EVENTUALLY INTERACT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW OF COURSE,
THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
RELIEF FROM THE DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS FINALLY ARRIVES TOMORROW,
AS THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR IS FINALLY SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. THAT SAID, HIGHS TOMORROW AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS AGAIN TOMORROW
OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW FOR
NOW. IN FACT, RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STAY OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA IN
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. SHOULD ANY STORMS
IMPACT SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TOMORROW, DAMAGING WINDS AGAIN WOULD
BE A THREAT, SO TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
THE ACTIVE PATTERN PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP A NEAR DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA, AS STORMS INITIATE AND MOVE EAST
OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. IT WILL ALSO KEEP THE AREA FROM SEEING
DANGEROUS HEAT INDICIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH DAILY
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 90S. THAT SAID, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN HUMID AND COULD PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE MIDDLE
90S BY THURSDAY. STRONGER UPPER HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH
FLOW WEAKENING ALOFT AND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY. HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT
AND THIS LOOKS TO BRING DRIER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO BOOST
HIGHS BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE 90S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NBM
PROBABILITIES CREEPING UPWARDS (~50-70% PROBABILITY OF MAXT >95F)
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS COULD BRING A RETURN OF HEAT CONCERNS AS
WE HEAD INTO AUGUST, AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, LEADING TO
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS. ANY LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AT 10 TO
15KTS. WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, AT 5KTS
OR LESS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ005>010-023>029-035>038-057>059-069>071-094.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
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