040
FXUS63 KLBF 280637
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
137 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
- DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAD A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. A RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH OF THE
HIGH INTO WYOMING. ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, WEAK
DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE DISTURBANCES HAVE TRANSITIONED EAST
THIS EVENING AND HAVE LED TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS SEVERE
EARLIER THIS EVENING, BUT AS OF THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, THIS
ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED IN INTENSITY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SW CONUS OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES, ROTATING AROUND
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
ATTM THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS-TIMED TO THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. FOR TODAY,
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA,
WILL FORCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO KANSAS. WITH EASTERLY
FLOW NORTH OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY'S
READINGS. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA. LATER THIS AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO
AND WYOMING INVOF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND SB CAPES OF 1500 TO
2500 J/KG. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE UNDERNEATH A FAVORABLE AREA OF
THETA E AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOW AMPLITUDE WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CARRY THIS ACTIVITY EAST-SOUTHEAST, POSSIBLY
IMPACTING WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY EVENING. AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT, THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, SO AM EXPECTING
THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT THERE. FURTHER EAST, SB CAPES ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 25 TO 30 KTS NOTED. ANY STORMS WHICH DO BECOME SEVERE SHOULD
BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH MAINLY QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH AND OVER FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT, THIS ACTIVITY WILL
RIDE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CARRY THIS ACTIVITY INTO KANSAS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF TODAY'S SETUP. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND WYOMING.
MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MORE WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SETUP WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA AND THUS THE HIGHER POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT, ONCE
AGAIN, SB CAPES, THETA E RIDGING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
MOST FAVORABLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS, WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND DECREASED CAPES
WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER, DECENT MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IE. PWATS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
DISTURBANCE ON THURSDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST PUSHING THE NORTHWEST FLOW
EASTWARD WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WAA INCREASES TO THE REGION BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND WILL START TO SEE A RETURN TO HOT TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS REACHING MID 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE, HEAT INDICIES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW ANY HEAT
HEADLINE CRITERIA. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND, AT THIS TIME EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, IT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, THEN WILL NEED TO MONITOR HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS DRY CONDITIONS MOVE IN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL: THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL THROUGH 09Z OVERNIGHT. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO IMPACT THE TERMINAL, THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS.
VISIBILITY MAY FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 2SM. OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, EXPECT BROKEN CEILINGS OF 10000 TO 20000 FT
AGL WITH SKIES SCATTERING OUT MID AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT BEING
WEST OF THE TERMINAL. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL: SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE MAIN THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END BY 09Z OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CEILINGS RANGING FROM 20000 TO 25000 FT AGL AFTER MID
MORNING TUESDAY. THERE IS A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
WEST OF THE TERMINAL TUESDAY EVENING. ATTM, THIS THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE KVTN TERMINAL.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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