135
FXUS63 KLBF 282339
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
639 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 61.
- A THREAT FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE THURSDAY, WITH A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL REVOLVE AROUND A THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 61.
CURRENTLY, THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN PANHANDLE, AND HAVE SLOWLY BEGUN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS WILL CLUSTER WITH TIME, AND AT LEAST A
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH
TIME THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, WITHIN A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A SECONDARY THREAT
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH A DAILY MAX PWAT VALUE OF
1.87" ON THE 18Z KLBF SOUNDING. ANY SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING
CONVECTION THIS EVENING COULD POSE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING, PRIMARILY IN MORE SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
SANDHILLS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD EXIT THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, WITH SOME THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL LLJ DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER TOP THE RESIDUAL COLD
POOL. THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION COULD AGAIN LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, THOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCATTERED COVERAGE
COULD PRECLUDE ANY FLASH FLOODING THREAT SOMEWHAT.
A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN WARM INTO THE LOWER
90S. BY LATE AFTERNOON, ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. IT APPEARS THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN EAST OF THE TERRAIN,
WITH WEAK FORCING AND INCREASING INHIBITION WITH EASTERLY
EXTENT. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTION EVOLUTION REMAINS LOW FOR NOW. THIS
IS LARGELY TIED TO EARLY DAY CONVECTION, AND EXACTLY HOW THIS
WILL IMPACT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE AREA. IF ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON, A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED WITH RESPECT TO THE SEVERE THREAT THURSDAY.
STRONGER UPPER HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH FLOW
WEAKENING ALOFT AND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY. HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT
AND THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS BACK
TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION
BOOSTS HIGHS BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE 90S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL. WILL ESPECIALLY HAVE TO WATCH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
FIRE WEATHER BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHEN LOW HUMIDITY OVERLAPS
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. THE STORMS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF
LINE FROM VTN TO LBF. OTHERWISE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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