417
FXUS63 KLBF 290819
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
319 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND THURSDAY, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY
- A RETURN TO VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
- COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG LLJ.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WHERE A FEW OF THE CAMS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
AS THEY COULD LEAD TO SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND PWAT VALUES REMAIN HIGH.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS TO SEE OVER 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. ONE AREA OF CONCERN FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE OVER CUSTER COUNTY.
YESTERDAY PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUSTER RECEIVED AROUND 2 INCHES OR
MORE AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND TOMORROW COULD LEAD
TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THE GREATER CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THIS
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING
WILL BE WEAK HOWEVER LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN BEING ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AS
THEY MOVE EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW FOR THIS EVENING.
AS FOR THURSDAY, A SW TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH MU CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 TO 3000 J/KG.
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT OF HAIL AND
LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY. IN IT'S
WAKE A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CROSSED THE AREA WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCED
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, WHERE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST. DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH LOWS IN THE COMFORTABLE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY, EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO EXPAND NORTH AND
EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BEGIN A WARM-UP REGION
WIDE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA, WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS PUTS ACTUAL HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
80S ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 90S WEST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE WARMTH WITH HIGHS EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES
AT ALL LOCATIONS. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WYOMING AHEAD OF A
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING
STRONG, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS PARTICULARLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. HIGHS IN
THESE AREAS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S WITH HUMIDITY LIKELY DROPPING
INTO THE 20-25% RANGE BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND FAR
WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVEN'T RECEIVED RAIN AND MUCH
GREEN-UP.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE MAY FLATTEN SOME AND ALONG WITH HIGHER
PWAT VALUES. THIS COULD BRING A RETURN TO SOME CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.
STILL COULD SEE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS YET MONDAY, BUT THESE
DECREASE TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL BACK SOME AND HUMIDITY RISES.
AVIATION /06 TAFS THROUGH 06 THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THESE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 FROM
VTN TO LBF.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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