756
FXUS63 KLBF 291947
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
247 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, THOUGH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- MOSTLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER INCREASES, AS GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
- A POTENTIAL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
TONIGHT, MOSTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION, LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL
JET. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ON A PRECISE LOCATION, GIVEN THE
RATHER WEAK FORCING, SO HAVE LIMITED TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION, NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UNDER
THE STRONGER CELLS. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z LBF
SOUNDING, INDICATING FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE ALOFT, WITH A PWAT VALUE
OF 1.74 INCHES, WHICH EXCEEDS THE PREVIOUS DAILY MAX PWAT FOR JULY
29TH IN NORTH PLATTE. HOWEVER, THIS VALUE ALSO TIES THE PREVIOUS
HIGH PWAT VALUE FOR JULY 30TH. ALL THIS TO SAY, ANY STORM MAY
PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN WHERE
THIS RAIN SETS UP REMAINS QUITE LOW. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE
MORE "FEAST OR FAMINE" PRECIPITATION OF LATE ACROSS THE REGION,
WHERE ONE LOCATION RECEIVES AMPLE RAINFALL, BUT A FEW MILES AWAY
RECEIVES VERY LITTLE OR POTENTIALLY NONE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO CLEAR
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
THURSDAY, GREATER CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS,
PUSHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
WILL PUSH A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION, PROVIDING A
POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN RETURN AROUND SEASONAL, AROUND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S,
WITH DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY IN THE 70S POOLING EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BUILDING INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IS NOT AS STRONG AS A TYPICAL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION, THERE STILL
IS SUGGESTION OF SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE RELATIVELY
WEAKER SHEAR, AGREE WITH CAM GUIDANCE THAT STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP INTO A MORE LINEAR SYSTEM TRACKING EAST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS
LARGELY SUPPORTS THE GREATER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE REGION, BUT ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. GIVEN THE
SET UP, A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA EAST OF HIGHWAY 83, WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. BY THE LATE EVENING, EXPECTING THAT STORMS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE EAST OF THE REGION, LEAVING A FAIRLY QUIET BUT
POTENTIALLY GUSTY NIGHT IN THEIR WAKE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
BY FRIDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE
REGION, USHERING IN DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WHILE THIS RIDGE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION, WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES STEADILY CLIMBING THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH HIGHS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET AS WARM AS THE PREVIOUS TWO WEEKENDS. IN FACT,
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS SIT AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH SUNDAY, ONLY REACHING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
BY MONDAY. FOR REFERENCE, OUR TYPICAL HIGHS LATE JULY INTO EARLY
AUGUST ACTUALLY BEGIN TO COOL SLIGHTLY DROPPING FROM 90 TO 89.
FORECAST HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S,
THOUGH SOME PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE MAY BREAK INTO THE UPPER 90S.
WHILE WE WARM THROUGH THE DAY, DO EXPECT THAT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
60S OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT, WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME RELIEF.
THE ONLY REAL CONCERN FOR HEAT IN THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY, WHEN WE MAY SEE HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, WHICH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IS AROUND
THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF OUR LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY. EVEN THEN, EXPECTING
THIS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW RECORD VALUES (WHICH ARE AROUND 105).
AS THE HEAT SLOWLY BUILDS THIS WEEKEND AND WEATHER REMAINS DRY, WILL
LIKELY SEE INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES, MAY SEE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE INTO THE SANDHILLS, WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO SEE THESE
DROP LOWER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN PARTICULAR, WINDS MAY BECOME QUITE
GUSTY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS, WITH PEAK GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND
30 TO 40 MPH. GIVEN THAT LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND THAT WE WILL BE
WARMING AGAIN, THESE WINDS PROVIDE ENOUGH CONCERN FOR AT LEAST
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FORECAST TRENDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO TRACK INTO THE REGION (LARGELY DRIVING THE WIND AND
FIRE CONCERNS MONDAY). THIS SHOULD HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS SLIGHTLY MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN ARRIVES, SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DISAGREEMENT ON THIS. THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN, AROUND 50 PERCENT OR GREATER OF
EXCEEDING ONE TENTH OF AN INCH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE,
THE GEFS ONLY SHOWS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING. BOTH SEEM
IN AGREEMENT FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL, BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON
EXCEEDING ONE TENTH, EXPECT THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LOW END RAIN
EVENT, IF ANYTHING OCCURS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EFFECTIVE TAF PERIOD. LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS THE REGION, INTRODUCING BRIEF VISIBILITY AND CEILING
CONCERNS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT REMAINS LOW,
SO HAVE OMITTED FROM TAFS FOR NOW. STRATUS ALSO MOVES IN OVERNIGHT,
THOUGH CEILINGS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. A FEW SITES IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MAY REACH MVFR OVERNIGHT, BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN EAST OF KVTN AND KLBF.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...RICHIE
AVIATION...RICHIE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page