545
FXUS63 KLBF 301144
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
644 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
- COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS.
- A RETURN TO VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL RETURNS NEXT WEEK WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THURSDAY, WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. AS THE WAVE APPROACHES IN THE MORNING,
AN AREA SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE DAY. BACKED SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
WILL KEEP A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE BACKED
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE BULK SHEAR VALUES INTO
THE 40-45 KT RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. AS TEMPERATURES
WARM AND DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE 70S, A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DEVELOP. PRIOR TO STORM DEVELOPMENT, POCKETS OF SURFACED BASED CAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG APPEAR LIKELY. SOUNDING PROFILES ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA SUGGEST INITIAL SPLITTING
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL, BUT THEN SHOULD GROW UPSCALE RATHER QUICKLY
WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT BECOMING THE MAIN CONCERN AS A
COMPLEX/LINE OF STORMS ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE
EXITED THE AREA BY AROUND 10:00 PM CDT WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH OR SO WILL ARE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. IT WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. DEW POINTS
WILL ALSO BE MORE COMFORTABLE AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD AND IS
CENTERED RIGHT ACROSS THE HEART OF NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING. WITH
THE DRIER AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS, A VERY COMFORTABLE NIGHT OF LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO EXPAND NORTH AND EASTWARD
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO NEAR THE IOWA/NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, EVEN ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE PANHANDLE WHERE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DROPS
INTO THE 20-25% RANGE AND HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES AT ALL LOCATIONS. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
WYOMING AHEAD OF A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL BRING STRONG, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS, PARTICULARLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS WILL REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER
90S WITH HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE 18-25% RANGE. EVEN THOUGH SOME
AREAS HAVE RECEIVED DECENT RAINFALL, OVERALL DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAKE
THE ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THESE CONCERNS WILL
LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS
AND THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
WINDS, VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY.
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE FLATTENS SOME AND
ALONG WITH HIGHER PWAT VALUES RETURNING TO THE AREA PER ENSEMBLE
MEAN/AVERAGES. THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO SOME CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL. STILL COULD SEE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS YET MONDAY, BUT
THESE DECREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DIVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA COOLING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK AND
HUMIDITY ON THE RISE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, INCLUDING KLBF
TERMINAL, WITH LOWER CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
THE SANDHILLS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING AS WELL,
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY BRIEFLY WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL, ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY,
SWITCHING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT, AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...GOMEZ
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