843
FXUS63 KLBF 310508
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1208 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BUT AN
ISOLATED HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- WARM, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- A POTENTIAL RETURN TO SEASONAL HIGHS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION, BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE MOUNTAIN WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD INTERACT
WITH THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND HELP PROVIDE BETTER LIFT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA TO FURTHER HELP INITIATE CELLS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH (LOW TO MID 70S) ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG WITH AMPLE MUCAPE AT 2500 - 3000 J/KG
SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE GROWTH. CAMS HAVE HAD
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN STARTING OUT SUPERCELLIC IN NATURE WITH MODEST
0-6 KM CAPE AT LOW TO MID 30 KNOTS. WHILE H850 TEMPS ARE ON THE
WARMER SIDE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S C, THE MUCAPE MENTIONED ABOVE
ALONG WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOWS THAT AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
THREAT IS POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
AS STORMS TRANSITION INTO A POTENTIAL LINE LATER THIS EVENING. CAMS
HAVE BEEN IN FAIR AGREEMENT OF CELLS BUNCHING INTO A LINE EARLY THIS
EVENING AND MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS ALSO
MATCHES UP WITH A LARGE AREA OF ABOUT 1000 J/KG DCAPE. WITH
ABNORMALLY HIGH PWAT VALUES OF 1.91 INCHES AS WELL AS LOW AND
MID RH VALUES BEING NEAR THE 75% THRESHOLD FROM OUR 18Z SOUNDING
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR STORMS TO BE POTENTIAL FLOOD PRODUCERS
REGARDLESS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. AS SUCH, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE CWA UNTIL 9 PM CDT WHICH
LINES UP WITH CAMS ON WHEN MOST OF OUR CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF OUR REGION.
FRIDAY WILL START TO BRING A RETURN TO WARMER, DRIER CONDITIONS AS A
RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 - 35 MPH. THIS WILL PROMOTE SOME
ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS EVEN HUMIDITY ONLY BEING AROUND 40
PERCENT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
SUMMER HEAT WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES IN FROM WESTERN CONUS. AS IT STANDS, GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY
SUGGESTING H850 TEMPS IN THE 20 - 30C WITH SURFACE HIGHS CRESTING
THE MID 90S ON SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGHS REACHING EVEN HIGHER TO
TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY. THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO
20 - 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE SANDHILLS,
WITH MODERATE PROBABILITY (30 - 50%) OF HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. COMBINE THIS WITH GUSTY SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO WETTING PRECIPITATION EXPECTED,
WILL MAKE FOR THE LIKELY RETURN OF ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY INCREASED
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS TREND.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE REGION FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS
WILL LARGELY BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HEIGHTENED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT 50 - 70%
PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO LOW 20S TO UPPER TEENS ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83, THIS WILL MAKE FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, WHERE IF THE TREND HOLDS, COULD WARRANT SOME FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES, DEPENDING ON HOW RECEPTIVE FUELS ARE TO
RECENT RAINS. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER TREND TO MONITOR FOR ANY
CHANGES. A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A COOL FRONT MOVING IN BUT, THERE REMAINS SOME
ENSEMBLE DISAGREEMENT OVER JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
DURING THIS TIME WITH GEFS AND ECMWF MEMBERS SHOWING 0 - 0.1"
WHILE GFS BEING ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF
RAIN BY THE END OF WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AN AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, AN
AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS (MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS) ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A BBW TO VTN LINE. THESE
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE NORTH TO AT 15-25 KTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS DIMINISH
QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MRS
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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