107
FXUS63 KLBF 310814
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
314 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS.
- TEMEPRATURES WARM SOME ON SATURDAY BUT OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST.
- HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWER 100S, WILL
RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH INCREASING FIRE DANGER IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- COOLER WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH OR SO
CAN BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. IT WILL
BE COOLER, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF THE STATE. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE MORE COMFORTABLE AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
HEART OF NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS AND
LIGHT WINDS, A VERY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO EXPAND NORTH AND EASTWARD
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS DO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH. WINDS STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HUMIDITY DOES GET QUITE LOW, IN THE 18-23%
RANGE WEST OF HIGHWAY 2 BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT AS MENTIONED
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THROUGH SUNDAY, THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH ANCHORED FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES, SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, BY LATE
SUNDAY, A TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NW STATES FLATTENING THE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND FORCING THE RIDGE EAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FROM
CENTRAL WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
FEATURE, WARMER AIR AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 90S, WITH
SOME LOWER 100S POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH A DECENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND H85 WINDS APPROACHING 15
TO 20 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH HOT TEMPS AND MINIMUM RH
IN THE RANGE FOR 15 TO 25 PERCENT, AM CONCERNED ABOUT NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS MIN RH AROUND 15 PERCENT IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE WHERE HIGHS COULD TOP 100 DEGREES. ATTM FIRE ZONE 204
HAS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MESSAGE THIS IN THE HWO WITH THIS
MORNING'S ISSUANCE. ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THE MODELS DEVELOP A LOW
LEVEL JET FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL
POSTPONE, IF NOT TOTALLY ELIMINATE, DECOUPLING SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH WINDS PERSISTING POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS,
RH RECOVERY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 45 TO 55
PERCENT RANGE WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE H5 TROUGH WILL CROSS OVER
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE, GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL FORCE WARMER AIR INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD 90S ARE PROBABLY MONDAY WITH READINGS
POSSIBLY REACHING 100 DEGREES FROM GARDEN COUNTY EAST SOUTHEAST
INTO LINCOLN COUNTY AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY, WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL AND
POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY WEST OF HIGHWAY
83. LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA, MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY (PER LATEST GFS SOLN). IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ATTM, THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE COOLEST. BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE NORTH OF THE EXITING COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
BE DRIVEN BY A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH EMERGES FROM
WYOMING INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT, HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR TUESDAY WITH READINGS
IN THE MIDDLE 70S OVER THE NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 80S IN THE SOUTH.
READINGS REBOUND SOME ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO 80S AND 90S
FOR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AN AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, AN
AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS (MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS) ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A BBW TO VTN LINE. THESE
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE NORTH TO AT 15-25 KTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS DIMINISH
QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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