816
FXUS63 KLBF 011748
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA
INTO THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. READINGS MAY REACH 100 DEGREES IN SW NEBRASKA.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
_ MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S. A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO EXPAND NORTH AND EASTWARD FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
BY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HUMIDITY DOES
GET QUITE LOW, IN THE 19-24% RANGE WEST OF HIGHWAY 2 BY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT AS MENTIONED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SIDE.
AS A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES TONIGHT, SOUTH WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE, AND SOME OF THIS WIND MIXES TO THE SURFACE. THIS MOSTLY
OCCURS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS, WHERE GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR SO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT
AND THEN CONTINUE.
ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEEPEN ACROSS WYOMING AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH NOSING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR GUSTY SOUTH WINDS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15-18% TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 2. EVEN WITH
THE RECENT RAINFALL, FUELS ARE THERE DUE TO THE OVERALL DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FOR AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 2 DUE TO THE WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, MIXING WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW COOLDOWN SUNDAY EVENING AND
PROLONG FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MORE ABOUT THAT IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW. WITH WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO TOTALLY DECOUPLE SUNDAY NIGHT,
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA MIDDAY DRIFTING SLOWLY
EAST AND SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL LOCATION AT 21Z MONDAY WITH THE GFS
HAVING THIS FEATURE ORIENTED ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND OSHKOSH TO
VALENTINE. THE NAM IS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH THIS FEATURE PLACING
THE FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM CHAPPELL TO SPRINGVIEW. HIGHS SOUTH
OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S WITH LOWER 90S
FORECAST NORTH OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A MINOR THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE LATEST NBM
PROBABILISTIC FORECAST HAS A 40 TO 70% CHANCE OF 12 HR QPF >
0.01 INCHES ACROSS THE FA ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY. WHEN THE QPF
THRESHOLD IS RAISED TO 0.10", PERCENTAGES OF EXCEEDANCE FALL OFF
TO 40 PERCENT OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. GOING FORWARD 12 HOURS,
ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 0.10" OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. THAT BEING SAID, THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE PLACED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CARRY
OVER INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THE PANHANDLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE EXPECTED THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 70S
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER SOUTH,
READINGS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 80S. BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S WITH A LIMITED THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING
AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS COULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 18Z SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, GENERALLY EAST OF A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND EASTERN WYOMING. THE
LATEST NBM HAS A NEAR 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25+ MPH WIND GUSTS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN A THREAT
FOR 35 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND EASTERN
PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
TO AROUND 100 IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PANHANDLE
AND MINIMUM RH OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT FORECAST, DECIDED TO HOIST A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL CARRY THIS OVER INTO LATE EVENING SUNDAY AS WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DECREASE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER
ZONE 204. MINIMUM RH MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 20 TO
30 PERCENT WEST OF A LINE FROM EUSTIS, TO NORTH PLATTE, TO
MERRIMAN. THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25
MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON, GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ204-210.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...KULIK
FIRE WEATHER...BUTTLER
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